Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-12-04

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-12-08

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 755 45 69 0 0 0 0
OW 0 88 22 94 42 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 25 64 55 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 70 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 49 181 329 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 206 1404 8977 24283
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 729 45 63 1 0 0 0
OW 0 92 14 86 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 21 58 58 1 0 0
ODI 0 1 12 73 76 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 50 215 338 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 177 1402 9013 24283

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 603 2505
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 603 2505

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 9895
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 81 9897

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 80 119 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 223 1530 2179 1441
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 24 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 60 148 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 252 1484 2179 1441

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 102 3816 3291
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 3817 3291

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 187 3226 1876
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 12 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 184 3221 1876

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1105 29 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 345 60 69 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 90 71 236 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 17 238 95 0 0 0
CDI 0 6 0 181 256 154 10 0
VCDI 0 0 1 56 296 583 2359 3
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1061 25 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 389 65 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 77 246 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 10 270 144 22 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 147 267 174 21 0
VCDI 0 0 1 57 235 541 2348 3

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8469 2282 38 95 0 0 0 0
OW 5 21 31 59 1 0 0 0
VODI 1 2 5 82 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 44 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 58 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 28 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8465 2252 26 83 0 0 0 0
OW 8 47 33 64 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 6 14 95 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 33 60 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 55 38 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5987 2107 18 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 227 54 38 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 41 100 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 116 53 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 46 232 144 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 33 602 1828 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5987 2067 10 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 251 51 33 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 41 119 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 13 127 71 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 231 242 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 505 1835 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9734 2160 42 53 3 0 0 0
OW 0 88 33 109 130 15 0 0
VODI 0 0 24 84 49 55 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 34 23 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 124 36 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 65 19 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9734 2153 42 60 6 0 0 0
OW 0 93 33 98 128 26 0 0
VODI 0 2 24 91 46 43 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 45 39 19 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 105 36 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 70 22 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 278 1870 136 262 90 0 0 0
OW 0 44 34 157 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 14 137 106 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 132 12 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 271 109 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 209 790 993 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 278 1864 139 218 82 0 0 0
OW 0 49 28 170 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 17 169 114 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 159 10 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 246 77 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 824 1004 1

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2112 3332 154 348 3 0 0 0
OW 156 371 38 130 36 0 0 0
VODI 20 201 66 177 137 0 0 0
ODI 0 58 28 196 221 10 0 0
CDI 0 10 4 37 118 55 0 0
VCDI 0 3 2 47 303 165 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2125 2980 151 341 14 0 0 0
OW 129 549 22 121 49 0 0 0
VODI 34 333 77 161 98 0 0 0
ODI 0 99 35 222 242 9 0 0
CDI 0 12 4 49 128 22 0 0
VCDI 0 2 3 41 287 199 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15446 253 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15421 253 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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