Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-11-27

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-12-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 366 700 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 19 400 29 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 416 49 73 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 79 25 77 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 58 37 208 91 34 0 0
VCDI 0 97 48 215 311 2700 10842 20008
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 334 646 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 46 164 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 7 260 29 47 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 256 34 62 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 203 23 83 64 26 0 0
VCDI 0 221 102 393 344 2708 10842 20008

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 672 2321 113
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 669 2321 113

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 8 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 252 2526 7165
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 16 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 241 2517 7155

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 10 2 0 0 0
OW 0 5 7 254 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 1 183 213 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 352 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 321 267 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 818 1941 1115
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 74 34 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 156 166 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 193 318 18 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 62 231 73 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 143 174 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 825 1928 1115

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 56 2245 4920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 56 2245 4920

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 126 1329 3833
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 127 1324 3833

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 439 1833 56 14 0 0 0 0
OW 44 460 113 106 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 35 220 8 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 78 139 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 236 145 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 36 1383 882 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 397 1760 55 15 0 0 0 0
OW 60 310 80 114 5 0 0 0
VODI 26 176 50 184 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 96 19 96 87 2 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 39 151 27 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 136 1499 883 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10580 598 17 1 0 0 0 0
OW 82 15 0 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 10 0 1 3 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10542 598 17 1 0 0 0 0
OW 125 14 0 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 5 1 1 4 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6032 2035 26 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 284 82 65 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 36 177 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 88 104 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 249 434 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 765 1258 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6032 1890 20 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 312 38 40 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 137 48 106 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 39 113 70 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 274 459 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 739 1237 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10139 1856 45 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 64 57 155 34 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 96 86 29 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 116 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 81 69 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 101 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10139 1762 29 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 145 48 138 31 18 0 0
VODI 0 13 25 78 118 24 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 65 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 96 72 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 93 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 803 1878 71 175 5 0 0 0
OW 0 38 18 161 19 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 145 106 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 288 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 227 619 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 590 510 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 803 1845 61 222 27 2 0 0
OW 0 71 28 160 97 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 109 303 241 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 148 246 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 52 293 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 42 491 504 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3943 3514 83 105 0 0 0 0
OW 92 138 23 114 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 10 118 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 57 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 62 50 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 81 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3932 3434 71 108 6 0 0 0
OW 89 182 32 100 21 0 0 0
VODI 14 61 12 102 47 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 42 42 13 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 18 51 45 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 72 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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