Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-11-20

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-24

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 122 677 17 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 193 67 94 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 46 331 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 122 101 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 72 351 169 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 33 101 1789 8841 23697
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 119 600 8 7 0 0 0 0
OW 3 160 15 18 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 123 84 200 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 38 23 208 106 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 10 120 248 117 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 103 189 1841 8838 23697

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 5 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 107 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 136 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 412 409 1920
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 9 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 125 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 95 18 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 409 408 1920

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 177 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 657 3078 6028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 125 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 708 3070 6028

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 154 71 193 51 0 0 0
OW 0 173 95 246 45 5 0 0
VODI 0 11 7 211 124 21 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 17 269 67 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 230 410 58 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 448 1750 970
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 172 80 220 109 22 0 0
OW 0 108 44 129 75 27 0 0
VODI 0 56 43 182 168 64 6 0
ODI 0 3 6 92 143 152 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 166 215 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 83 471 1717 970

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 116 723 6373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 116 723 6375

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 2140 3136
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 2145 3136

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 205 1868 50 67 3 0 0 0
OW 2 576 88 102 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 144 114 340 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 79 129 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 227 315 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 598 1252 67
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 206 1826 57 95 7 0 0 0
OW 1 243 29 64 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 463 114 242 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 58 52 175 150 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 215 321 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 581 1241 67

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10390 833 15 14 1 0 0 0
OW 31 37 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10339 839 15 14 1 0 0 0
OW 68 29 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 14 2 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6253 2197 30 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 143 96 83 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 152 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 71 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 252 109 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 25 686 1484 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6253 2156 60 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 162 24 90 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 38 91 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 67 81 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 218 185 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 602 1484 2

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10508 1706 29 54 3 0 0 0
OW 0 58 29 72 32 3 0 0
VODI 0 28 4 93 58 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 37 58 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 78 67 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 56 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10508 1738 23 94 29 5 0 0
OW 0 52 32 57 45 6 0 0
VODI 0 2 9 83 34 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 50 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 61 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 49 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1869 1795 82 74 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 26 132 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 283 65 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 56 307 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 212 378 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 303 90 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1869 1784 82 93 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 16 165 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 11 162 146 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 109 126 75 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 262 266 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 94 367 89 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7902 504 10 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 6 39 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 21 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 14 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7902 493 10 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 30 6 29 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 1 28 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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