Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-11-13

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-17

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 143 921 12 1 0 0 0 0
OW 51 324 83 75 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 130 51 194 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 28 24 230 92 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 70 354 152 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 14 245 4649 10226 18811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 108 700 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 45 434 27 9 0 0 0 0
VODI 42 186 99 131 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 50 14 214 47 0 0 0
CDI 0 25 20 190 371 78 0 0
VCDI 0 8 10 40 283 4724 10232 18811

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 7 116 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 81 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 70 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 56 158 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 887 1536 100
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 6 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 121 42 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 15 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 36 65 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 109 978 1529 100

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 209 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 326 4103 5274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 62 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 473 4138 5274

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1180 197 126 0 0 0 0
OW 0 97 44 323 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 3 140 223 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 238 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 92 463 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 19 245 1582 571
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1182 186 238 21 0 0 0
OW 0 77 53 187 93 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 5 139 218 48 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 40 149 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 65 197 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 29 382 1579 571

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 21 0 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 84 1731 5378
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 22 0 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 80 1731 5381

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 156 4 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 884 3268 904
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 127 3 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 909 3269 903

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1470 2172 18 0 0 0 0 0
OW 139 258 109 128 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 9 2 200 33 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 163 7 0 0
CDI 1 0 0 6 287 479 0 0
VCDI 8 0 0 0 155 542 87 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1417 1894 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 134 402 79 126 20 0 0 0
VODI 59 142 36 131 237 60 0 0
ODI 0 1 13 103 114 270 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 192 286 0 0
VCDI 9 0 0 0 75 412 87 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10910 322 23 1 0 0 0 0
OW 66 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10829 316 23 1 0 0 0 0
OW 137 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6300 2241 40 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 102 103 121 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 184 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 91 16 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 264 174 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 1048 866 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6300 2182 30 24 1 0 0 0
OW 0 159 81 52 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 32 190 22 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 115 68 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 285 185 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1038 866 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10665 1726 95 130 21 1 0 0
OW 0 0 2 68 29 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 43 72 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 59 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10665 1726 96 159 10 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 49 54 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 27 49 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 54 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 25 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2615 1418 30 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 83 187 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 252 248 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 386 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 218 54 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 100 81 68 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2615 1323 10 7 1 0 0 0
OW 0 130 88 177 73 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 20 233 307 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 269 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 197 51 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 118 77 68 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7801 661 6 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7801 625 3 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 36 4 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 5 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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