Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2025-11-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83950 5452 141 156 6 0 0 0
OW 0 71 110 212 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 23 194 97 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 106 114 53 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 297 346 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 60 2026 6725 140
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83585 5699 134 126 5 0 0 0
OW 0 93 132 153 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 42 247 52 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 167 76 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 66 401 164 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 2359 6067 638
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83522 5650 133 129 13 0 0 0
OW 3 118 139 197 54 3 0 0
VODI 0 1 12 246 68 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 96 134 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 381 268 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1296 7045 853
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83032 5729 105 141 32 0 0 0
OW 32 167 123 145 101 17 0 0
VODI 0 6 58 237 98 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 119 169 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 372 360 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 1597 7431 281
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83044 5746 111 160 38 1 0 0
OW 20 150 127 130 100 14 0 0
VODI 0 6 48 230 102 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 121 165 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 374 362 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 1596 7428 281

Date: 2025-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81973 6295 109 192 3 0 0 0
OW 96 217 124 184 103 3 0 0
VODI 4 14 40 295 138 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 137 249 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 444 486 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 2215 6986 23
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81982 6317 120 213 5 0 0 0
OW 88 200 119 178 96 2 0 0
VODI 3 9 36 284 149 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 140 250 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 439 486 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 2215 6978 23

Date: 2025-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82640 5562 164 156 22 1 0 0
OW 43 241 164 248 32 4 0 0
VODI 0 20 20 361 124 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 177 207 40 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 467 332 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 17 3102 5571 632
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82564 5345 143 184 12 0 0 0
OW 107 400 106 110 63 6 0 0
VODI 12 78 93 317 75 42 0 0
ODI 0 0 7 272 150 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 86 513 291 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 3155 5571 632

Date: 2025-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82057 5822 136 207 41 0 0 0
OW 61 368 124 156 39 3 0 0
VODI 0 49 85 277 109 43 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 242 186 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 483 384 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 2197 7017 200
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81950 5487 122 223 49 0 0 0
OW 155 526 70 100 58 3 0 0
VODI 13 206 120 216 86 54 0 0
ODI 0 20 35 295 114 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 111 550 364 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 2203 7016 200

Date: 2025-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82267 5763 89 53 9 0 0 0
OW 65 323 151 167 29 0 0 0
VODI 3 85 62 307 69 9 0 0
ODI 0 3 20 205 201 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 92 564 268 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 1669 6232 1603
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82091 5334 84 78 5 0 0 0
OW 148 515 133 147 31 1 0 0
VODI 94 216 44 247 100 32 0 0
ODI 2 87 47 170 218 10 0 0
CDI 0 22 14 182 465 303 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 127 1626 6228 1603


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