Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-11-06

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 145 1191 53 88 54 0 0 0
OW 0 229 65 103 77 7 0 0
VODI 0 68 30 115 115 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 93 67 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 91 222 73 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 129 2408 11914 19524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 145 1117 40 76 44 0 0 0
OW 0 276 36 93 86 6 0 0
VODI 0 95 65 96 123 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 101 72 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 123 190 74 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 149 2406 11904 19524

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13 132 21 93 5 0 0 0
OW 4 58 22 51 77 0 0 0
VODI 1 2 0 12 78 33 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 69 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 415 701 1229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8 130 42 117 7 0 0 0
OW 9 60 1 30 95 0 0 0
VODI 1 2 0 9 55 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 81 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 406 701 1229

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 29 19 75 11 0 0 0
OW 0 14 2 113 191 2 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 104 193 25 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 286 41 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 441 142 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 111 627 2706 4794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 25 15 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 5 123 166 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 122 222 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 272 54 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 429 190 25 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 144 574 2694 4793

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1810 163 310 88 8 0 0
OW 0 37 32 64 133 54 0 0
VODI 0 6 18 93 74 109 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 69 98 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 96 146 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 230 1491 377
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1805 156 272 65 9 0 0
OW 0 45 33 98 133 53 0 0
VODI 0 3 24 98 108 117 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 89 91 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 74 173 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 202 1464 377

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 973 6226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 973 6226

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 1154 4093
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 1153 4090

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1714 2092 115 389 43 0 0 0
OW 72 203 16 194 207 0 0 0
VODI 7 150 24 90 246 36 0 0
ODI 0 17 3 56 176 103 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 163 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 126 39 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1679 2079 88 306 72 0 0 0
OW 101 225 42 276 184 0 0 0
VODI 13 154 28 123 371 70 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 24 62 145 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 139 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 74 15 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10839 469 13 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10839 469 13 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6608 2319 48 60 6 0 0 0
OW 0 49 70 55 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 28 113 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 59 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 219 123 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 746 950 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6608 2312 50 62 8 0 0 0
OW 0 55 65 49 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 31 116 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 57 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 222 127 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 745 950 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11614 1192 44 37 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 48 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11614 1193 44 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 46 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2399 1610 90 159 24 0 0 0
OW 0 138 42 214 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 68 48 141 206 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 16 51 61 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 10 61 77 2 4 0
VCDI 0 0 1 45 80 56 87 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2399 1612 87 152 15 0 0 0
OW 0 131 40 200 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 49 147 194 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 20 66 47 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 10 69 66 1 3 0
VCDI 0 0 1 37 101 57 88 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8529 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8522 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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