Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-11-06

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 145 1278 43 47 30 0 0 0
OW 0 210 112 128 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 202 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 150 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 314 108 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 118 2399 11919 19524
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 145 1117 40 76 44 0 0 0
OW 0 276 36 93 86 6 0 0
VODI 0 95 65 96 123 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 13 101 72 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 123 190 74 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 149 2406 11904 19524

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14 136 18 63 1 0 0 0
OW 3 56 25 49 4 0 0 0
VODI 1 0 0 44 102 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 68 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 172 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 341 701 1229
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8 130 42 117 7 0 0 0
OW 9 60 1 30 95 0 0 0
VODI 1 2 0 9 55 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 14 81 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 406 701 1229

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 33 20 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 5 143 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 135 361 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 629 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 210 237 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 591 2720 4794
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 25 15 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 5 123 166 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 122 222 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 272 54 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 429 190 25 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 144 574 2694 4793

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1795 156 239 23 0 0 0
OW 0 58 57 209 72 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 55 213 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 140 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 25 291 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 200 1543 377
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1805 156 272 65 9 0 0
OW 0 45 33 98 133 53 0 0
VODI 0 3 24 98 108 117 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 89 91 28 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 74 173 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 202 1464 377

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 974 6226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 973 6226

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 3 26
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 1151 4087
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 1153 4090

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1728 2131 104 303 0 0 0 0
OW 64 317 52 248 34 0 0 0
VODI 1 14 2 174 232 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 324 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 110 170 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 251 42 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1679 2079 88 306 72 0 0 0
OW 101 225 42 276 184 0 0 0
VODI 13 154 28 123 371 70 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 24 62 145 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 139 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 74 15 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10839 469 13 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10839 469 13 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6608 2315 54 56 7 0 0 0
OW 0 62 92 99 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 127 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 110 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 205 146 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 728 950 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6608 2312 50 62 8 0 0 0
OW 0 55 65 49 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 31 116 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 57 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 222 127 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 745 950 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11614 1192 37 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 7 59 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 17 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11614 1193 44 42 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 46 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 18 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2399 1641 77 43 0 0 0 0
OW 0 155 85 265 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 45 278 203 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 41 223 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 69 19 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 47 36 88 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2399 1612 87 152 15 0 0 0
OW 0 131 40 200 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 76 49 147 194 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 20 66 47 0 0 0
CDI 0 2 10 69 66 1 3 0
VCDI 0 0 1 37 101 57 88 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8535 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8522 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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