Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-10-30

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-03

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 215 1827 103 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 59 243 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 169 133 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 163 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 219 366 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 95 4668 10569 17849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 214 1802 101 100 12 0 0 0
OW 1 57 41 129 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 16 176 108 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 55 186 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 241 261 106 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 4804 10489 17849

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 478 290 8 12 17 0 0 0
OW 0 11 9 25 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 21 83 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 76 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 63 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 210 1520 216
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 478 289 10 11 14 0 0 0
OW 0 12 7 31 59 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 83 23 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 50 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 40 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 237 1520 216

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 601 105 134 8 0 0 0
OW 0 48 47 168 97 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 117 175 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 255 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 132 163 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 512 2706 4650
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11 524 89 143 47 0 0 0
OW 0 104 41 94 141 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 23 135 185 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 165 62 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 128 207 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 408 2672 4650

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 452 1832 26 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 231 141 240 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 3 186 112 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 247 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 98 178 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 516 1088 105
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 452 1776 15 28 3 0 0 0
OW 0 209 54 28 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 61 61 145 34 7 0 0
ODI 0 18 23 137 77 13 1 0
CDI 0 2 17 89 167 74 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 65 221 645 1110 105

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 44 4
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 219 58
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 79 1318 5467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 4
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 5 95 89
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 109 1464 5436

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 230 41 145 5
CDI 0 0 0 0 146 332 299 102
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 289 3228 466
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 177 85 345 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 188 253 672 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 324 2655 565

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4334 1459 23 24 8 0 0 0
OW 47 157 21 85 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 28 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 37 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4309 1435 16 42 24 0 0 0
OW 66 178 27 86 70 0 0 0
VODI 6 3 1 9 29 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 11 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11314 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11314 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6881 2424 54 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 43 54 121 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 10 110 64 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 91 57 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 146 163 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 500 875 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6881 2423 51 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 59 73 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 8 105 62 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 63 64 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 150 146 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 29 536 875 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12145 725 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 90 9 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12145 667 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 139 11 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 2 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2771 1690 153 348 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 34 254 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 140 51 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 98 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 33 26 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 16 89 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2771 1682 158 542 19 0 0 0
OW 0 32 29 152 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 7 33 90 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 24 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 27 13 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 30 89 1

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8537 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15742 0 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15742 0 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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