Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-10-16

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1524 2218 52 31 0 0 0 0
OW 0 360 132 243 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 6 605 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 274 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 436 958 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 9675 8148 11980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1524 2031 53 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 328 38 183 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 216 64 386 125 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 33 151 160 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 189 272 455 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 283 10138 8085 11980

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 705 303 0 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 45 27 70 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 51 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 76 136 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 738 904 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 705 273 0 12 0 0 0 0
OW 0 57 11 18 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 15 45 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 49 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 6 37 24 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 70 850 898 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 30 1410 137 122 5 0 0 0
OW 0 15 38 151 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 127 109 0 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 148 36 136 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 162 422 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 826 2987 2967
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 30 1396 119 150 19 0 0 0
OW 0 29 54 188 97 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 99 208 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 118 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 346 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 726 3176 2967

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1474 1681 88 54 1 0 0 0
OW 0 173 76 180 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 213 109 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 243 52 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 105 268 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 307 544 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1472 1593 91 143 32 0 0 0
OW 2 214 28 88 76 28 0 0
VODI 0 46 30 137 45 65 4 0
ODI 0 1 16 78 153 27 15 0
CDI 0 0 0 32 168 186 28 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 328 519 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 949 82 151 2 0 0 0
OW 2 216 94 346 31 0 0 0
VODI 5 4 18 236 220 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 247 77 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 124 628 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 350 3208 77
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 883 128 316 70 0 0 0
OW 1 213 45 298 290 55 0 0
VODI 6 67 14 124 221 463 29 0
ODI 0 6 7 29 43 372 160 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 147 794 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 2344 77

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 2455 186 217 2 0 0 0
OW 0 102 91 346 78 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 251 182 31 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 249 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 785 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 49 113 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3 2353 163 332 120 6 0 0
OW 0 196 100 279 106 27 0 0
VODI 0 8 15 176 210 60 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 34 145 113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 607 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 89 109 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5949 363 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5953 364 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6612 2557 123 134 4 4 0 0
OW 0 2 26 192 43 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 149 128 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 400 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 246 537 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 383 120 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6612 2483 76 175 48 3 0 0
OW 0 76 62 152 123 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 127 235 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 292 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 343 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 505 120 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4827 628 22 8 0 0 0 0
OW 5 33 8 40 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 38 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 23 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 33 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 20 77 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4775 557 18 6 0 0 0 0
OW 57 95 11 31 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 0 41 31 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 21 34 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 9 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 12 77 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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