Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-10-09

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-13

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1329 2481 69 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 389 109 129 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 94 167 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 47 276 116 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 199 177 275 1168 0 0
VCDI 0 0 303 3905 1477 6955 10849 6216
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1329 2432 56 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 221 40 76 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 140 52 104 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 69 43 113 2 0 0 0
CDI 0 92 249 298 267 506 35 0
VCDI 0 0 381 4090 1612 7620 10814 6216

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 668 301 8 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 4 38 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 64 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 41 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 51 189 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 1086 556 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 668 300 5 31 1 0 0 0
OW 0 11 7 59 35 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 66 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 37 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 347 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 832 556 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1716 46 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 223 89 202 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 9 257 108 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 303 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 182 672 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1198 3507 1219
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1518 28 16 3 0 0 0
OW 0 354 71 153 57 5 0 0
VODI 0 69 44 259 186 48 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 75 287 231 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 61 511 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1103 3379 1219

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2002 1616 45 41 0 0 0 0
OW 0 79 28 83 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 13 112 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 157 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 81 239 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 295 716 39
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2002 1652 55 118 4 0 0 0
OW 0 46 30 111 108 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 28 135 96 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 42 178 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 21 219 149 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 49 535 39

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 835 2064 32 11 0 0 0 0
OW 19 371 179 410 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 2 200 190 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 290 51 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 125 501 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 112 1368 308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 833 1917 43 8 0 0 0 0
OW 21 463 85 174 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 82 322 137 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 115 274 80 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 208 355 195 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 231 1296 308

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 954 2323 102 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 138 73 253 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 172 138 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 282 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 240 512 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 49 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 954 2214 89 127 1 0 0 0
OW 0 236 58 150 55 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 32 152 126 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 39 181 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 275 269 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 294 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6307 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6307 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11302 0 20 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11302 0 20 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10206 5 244 0 0 0 0 0
OW 41 0 358 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 193 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 159 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 216 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 274 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10203 5 345 0 0 0 0 0
OW 42 0 254 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 2 0 218 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 191 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 262 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 174 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12986 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12986 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4879 620 3 14 3 10 0 0
OW 0 52 3 18 8 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 20 3 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 2 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 10 6 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 48 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4876 565 0 17 7 14 0 0
OW 3 69 3 14 2 14 0 0
VODI 0 38 4 25 9 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 6 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 6 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 44 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8536 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8536 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15649 0 97 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15649 0 97 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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