Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-09-18

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-22

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 773 2611 46 21 2 0 0 0
OW 0 288 193 398 66 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 11 447 619 85 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 629 1113 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 547 3747 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 7961 15988 1115
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 773 2489 40 50 14 0 0 0
OW 0 315 129 316 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 92 62 396 734 125 0 0
ODI 0 3 19 136 471 1605 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 48 511 3361 707 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 89 7815 15387 1115

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1221 144 0 1 0 0 0 0
OW 15 292 14 29 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 8 61 18 1 0 0
ODI 0 9 1 69 51 9 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 57 250 320 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 487 2 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1202 120 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 34 297 2 12 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 45 17 52 21 1 0 0
ODI 0 7 4 86 44 10 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 63 228 325 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 51 481 2 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2077 2734 22 1 0 0 0 0
OW 49 920 98 213 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 232 70 405 392 12 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 119 524 270 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 427 877 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 7 338 53 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2081 2772 29 32 8 0 0 0
OW 45 1007 119 232 99 0 0 0
VODI 0 112 49 406 389 144 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 100 509 300 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 391 827 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 226 59 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3815 1176 19 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 59 28 73 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 87 80 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 110 108 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 74 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3815 1116 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 117 38 47 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 11 97 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 113 135 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 47 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1988 3014 92 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 125 125 384 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 158 231 202 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 97 172 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 385 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 45 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1988 2883 69 47 0 0 0 0
OW 0 250 124 277 131 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 29 214 222 366 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 34 252 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 18 186 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2595 1449 39 21 0 0 0 0
OW 0 92 46 133 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 16 159 91 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 162 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 100 341 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 20 2 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2595 1340 22 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 205 65 109 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 14 187 167 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 145 74 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 269 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 2 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6147 170 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6147 170 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9535 1555 61 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 17 108 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 70 78 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 66 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 48 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 70 5 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9535 1534 57 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 21 106 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 35 84 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 19 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 39 17 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 57 3 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4621 1031 12 21 1 0 0 0
OW 0 2 1 5 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 7 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 24 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4621 1018 11 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 13 1 9 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 3 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 6 38 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 20 27 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8537 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15740 0 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15740 0 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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