Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-09-04

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-08

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1321 2651 29 29 0 0 0 0
OW 0 757 194 270 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 103 126 1859 483 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 370 8666 2130 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2078 11100 129 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 3445 1137 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1321 2622 18 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 789 204 278 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 100 127 1812 641 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 427 8667 2329 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1924 11015 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 3327 1121 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 635 359 7 4 0 0 0 0
OW 59 325 63 58 0 0 0 0
VODI 19 111 25 88 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 51 30 0 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 7 122 368 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 592 105 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 629 350 6 4 0 0 0 0
OW 71 295 65 57 0 0 0 0
VODI 13 153 24 89 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 2 51 27 0 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 7 129 334 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 626 119 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1727 2887 25 7 0 0 0 0
OW 258 1140 260 167 0 0 0 0
VODI 16 120 103 958 59 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 169 554 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 401 767 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 240 36 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1721 2864 24 5 0 0 0 0
OW 276 1155 262 180 0 0 0 0
VODI 4 128 102 953 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 164 537 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 412 797 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 209 36 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3806 657 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 29 540 18 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 53 257 92 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 122 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3807 639 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 28 559 24 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 47 258 78 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 136 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1668 1785 16 4 0 0 0 0
OW 0 908 162 261 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 44 55 1387 347 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 509 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1668 1693 9 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1005 161 250 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 63 1343 304 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 552 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2198 1474 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 445 81 156 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 32 290 178 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 185 129 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 80 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2198 1439 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 484 84 165 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 29 291 210 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 155 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 79 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9631 1515 7 1 0 0 0 0
OW 2 268 21 42 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 7 36 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 21 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 59 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9628 1508 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 5 273 20 30 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 11 45 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 25 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 58 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11879 1064 16 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11879 1064 16 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5325 295 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 62 4 17 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 0 58 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5325 294 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 1 65 6 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 0 69 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8522 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8519 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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