Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-09-04

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-08

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1321 2952 17 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 557 290 338 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 42 2003 458 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 179 6894 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3895 14600 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2042 1264 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1321 2622 18 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 789 204 278 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 100 127 1812 641 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 427 8667 2329 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1924 11015 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 3327 1121 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 656 446 9 1 0 0 0 0
OW 57 350 85 79 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 3 114 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 13 47 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 110 554 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 406 138 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 629 350 6 4 0 0 0 0
OW 71 295 65 57 0 0 0 0
VODI 13 153 24 89 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 2 51 27 0 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 7 129 334 45 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 626 119 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1838 3226 17 2 0 0 0 0
OW 163 920 358 328 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 13 953 194 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 642 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 178 908 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 96 83 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1721 2864 24 5 0 0 0 0
OW 276 1155 262 180 0 0 0 0
VODI 4 128 102 953 65 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 164 537 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 412 797 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 209 36 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3829 897 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 6 373 61 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 234 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 192 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3807 639 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 28 559 24 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 47 258 78 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 136 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1668 2040 9 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 691 219 425 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 5 1275 257 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 588 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1668 1693 9 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1005 161 250 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 39 63 1343 304 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 135 552 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2198 1661 6 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 286 100 136 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 281 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 194 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 95 82 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 129 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2198 1439 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 484 84 165 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 29 291 210 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 155 124 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 79 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9632 1662 12 0 0 0 0 0
OW 1 126 22 28 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 1 52 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 15 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 2 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 60 17 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9628 1508 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 5 273 20 30 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 11 45 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 25 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 58 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11879 1064 16 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11879 1064 16 28 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5326 312 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 4 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 43 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5325 294 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 1 65 6 14 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 0 69 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8531 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8519 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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