Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-08-28

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-09-01

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1305 2858 42 17 0 0 0 0
OW 5 694 274 438 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 44 1878 546 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 149 11786 478 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1965 11315 169 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1189 1746 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1300 2524 42 19 0 0 0 0
OW 10 816 124 189 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 204 173 1634 384 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 21 630 9162 1595 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 4749 9316 862 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2071 1053 0

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 595 594 15 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 312 35 95 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 2 150 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 16 45 2 0 0
CDI 0 8 0 1 108 311 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 645 112 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 573 451 20 22 0 0 0 0
OW 22 357 24 41 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 7 148 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 17 1 48 16 0 0 0
CDI 0 18 0 10 130 288 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 670 112 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1120 2402 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 345 1095 389 452 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 7 24 1059 234 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 1235 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 165 1080 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 139 181 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 744 1339 12 12 0 0 0 0
OW 722 1822 186 225 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 341 213 841 37 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 8 441 705 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 871 791 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 420 126 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3729 1083 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 63 270 70 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 257 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 115 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3524 794 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 268 535 23 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 49 298 53 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 81 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1549 2013 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 726 274 325 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 21 875 265 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 1127 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1544 1675 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 5 990 170 124 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 75 122 1044 623 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 801 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2377 1678 5 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 264 143 156 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 321 50 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 242 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 28 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2377 1558 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 356 103 94 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 47 352 161 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 154 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6317 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6310 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11322 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9688 1246 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 373 50 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 16 100 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 40 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 43 14 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 10 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9679 1115 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 9 322 1 12 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 191 61 80 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 4 65 28 23 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 55 23 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12842 145 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12842 145 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5568 114 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 2 27 0 5 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 5 41 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5563 65 0 2 0 0 0 0
OW 7 72 0 8 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 0 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8526 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8518 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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