Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-08-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 130106 10919 71 38 0 0 0 0
OW 662 5863 1016 910 5 0 0 0
VODI 8 363 608 4907 1539 1 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 814 11827 2878 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 108 3210 10734 1537 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 1970 4387 184
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 129279 11774 55 53 0 0 0 0
OW 1013 6215 701 586 0 0 0 0
VODI 7 787 667 4933 1320 0 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 1183 12033 2832 2 0
CDI 0 21 0 101 3466 10539 442 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 64 2614 4043 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2025-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131392 12610 68 94 0 0 0 0
OW 360 5467 1022 1240 12 0 0 0
VODI 5 155 250 4913 1382 2 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 354 10399 1842 2 0
CDI 0 6 0 25 2928 14126 438 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 4482 1152 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 131375 13078 106 117 0 0 0 0
OW 377 4977 965 1315 12 0 0 0
VODI 5 175 268 4722 1395 22 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 447 10065 2150 4 0
CDI 0 6 1 25 3246 13715 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 4565 1171 0

Date: 2025-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132723 10889 64 53 0 0 0 0
OW 242 5928 936 1113 20 0 0 0
VODI 5 335 367 4621 1499 1 0 0
ODI 0 27 5 528 10588 1451 7 0
CDI 0 13 3 23 3745 14958 765 0
VCDI 0 3 0 0 21 2895 915 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 132699 11232 93 96 1 0 0 0
OW 269 5536 879 1125 21 0 0 0
VODI 2 382 390 4501 1499 1 0 0
ODI 0 27 10 589 9943 1983 11 0
CDI 0 15 3 27 4388 14021 726 0
VCDI 0 3 0 0 21 3300 950 0

Date: 2025-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134033 12470 70 33 0 0 0 0
OW 442 3829 1237 1584 7 0 0 0
VODI 2 68 115 4670 1198 8 0 0
ODI 0 10 0 242 14661 502 0 0
CDI 0 17 0 1 2374 12835 191 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 2062 2061 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133378 9962 83 64 0 0 0 0
OW 1098 5354 632 708 37 0 0 0
VODI 1 1004 673 4425 1377 8 0 0
ODI 0 37 34 1286 10962 1668 17 0
CDI 0 37 0 47 5847 10498 932 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 38 3233 1303 0

Date: 2025-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134060 12540 61 28 0 0 0 0
OW 370 4134 1152 1219 1 0 0 0
VODI 3 138 219 4995 1038 4 0 0
ODI 0 20 0 429 13665 1529 1 0
CDI 0 22 0 4 2084 11717 548 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 2244 2507 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133409 9798 93 42 1 0 0 0
OW 1022 5633 602 730 22 0 0 0
VODI 2 1323 684 4241 1516 5 0 0
ODI 0 60 53 1562 9833 2388 23 0
CDI 0 37 0 100 5373 10291 1085 0
VCDI 0 3 0 0 54 2810 1948 0

Date: 2025-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134562 11989 64 40 0 0 0 0
OW 401 4315 1032 1020 7 0 0 0
VODI 18 288 305 5234 1003 43 0 0
ODI 0 28 1 364 13102 1687 0 0
CDI 0 20 0 10 1821 11907 415 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 28 3090 1949 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133931 9351 122 68 2 0 0 0
OW 1047 5562 580 892 35 1 0 0
VODI 3 1543 598 4110 1734 70 0 0
ODI 0 147 98 1409 8660 2360 13 0
CDI 0 35 4 189 5462 9827 771 0
VCDI 0 2 0 0 68 4469 1580 0


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