Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-06-19

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-23

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 355 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 313 112 37 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 382 29 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 107 409 24 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 323 960 159 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 3204 14099 16292
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 265 12 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 314 69 70 1 2 0 0
VODI 0 88 34 210 40 8 0 0
ODI 0 1 14 156 238 19 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 123 430 619 970 728
VCDI 0 0 0 17 72 3545 13289 15564

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 26 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 97 454 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 749 784 826 123
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 16 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 59 377 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 797 860 827 123

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 46 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 75 2865 107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 5586 1205 38
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 19 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 1439 156 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7039 1156 38

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 439 3 7 1 0 0 0
OW 0 219 82 67 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 22 268 91 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 89 588 90 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 99 3155 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 417 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 407 4 24 7 0 0 0
OW 0 113 20 35 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 49 60 101 10 0 0
ODI 0 31 23 239 120 56 0 0
CDI 0 0 11 73 527 1772 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1824 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 92 12 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 12 126 41 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 419 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1214 3336 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 472 1048 312 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 70 18 55 18 11 0 0
ODI 0 1 6 68 162 49 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 1303 2072 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 663 2306 296 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 567 13 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 283 192 78 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 16 572 86 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 702 91 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 316 1089 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 83 1101 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 382 20 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 431 131 116 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 70 427 125 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 382 105 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 568 981 215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 29 177 940 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 391 2181 15 9 0 0 0 0
OW 2 780 259 171 3 1 0 0
VODI 0 4 19 802 144 6 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 488 27 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 152 593 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 107 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 393 1927 13 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 758 113 138 3 1 0 0
VODI 0 277 148 549 160 6 4 0
ODI 0 3 19 295 442 102 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 180 447 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 121 81 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8841 1806 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 252 71 27 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 216 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 77 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8838 1676 3 0 0 0 0 0
OW 3 371 54 34 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 16 211 84 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 18 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6315 2152 22 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 221 155 87 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 13 565 52 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 849 9 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 193 582 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 29 305 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6315 2146 57 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 174 80 143 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 39 343 68 0 2 0
ODI 0 1 14 176 444 15 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 573 518 219 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 88 127 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9901 2377 13 15 0 0 0 0
OW 1 165 75 61 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 4 313 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 24 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9901 2285 12 19 0 0 0 0
OW 1 235 38 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 42 322 32 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 20 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1823 9 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 664 228 115 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 15 606 49 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 44 347 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 176 863 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 178 482 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 99 1651 26 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 587 78 221 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 264 123 291 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 9 22 185 153 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 70 342 452 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 586 506 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1088 1827 3 23 0 0 0 0
OW 43 656 136 128 4 0 0 0
VODI 3 21 14 842 167 8 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 126 2009 212 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 215 800 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 51 106 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 997 1353 5 27 0 0 0 0
OW 131 919 59 111 7 6 0 0
VODI 6 226 76 464 217 36 11 0
ODI 0 3 9 332 1425 261 21 0
CDI 0 3 4 191 739 657 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 111 83 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11936 2018 7 2 0 0 0 0
OW 120 673 115 58 0 0 0 0
VODI 1 8 18 242 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 207 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 23 183 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 33 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11689 1696 7 4 3 0 0 0
OW 349 801 41 43 8 0 0 0
VODI 19 202 87 214 67 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 45 132 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 56 168 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 58 31 0


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