Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-06-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82415 16121 205 221 16 3 0 0
OW 196 4344 900 1142 132 4 0 0
VODI 12 879 589 4454 1592 101 12 0
ODI 0 42 71 1333 4073 1087 83 0
CDI 0 28 14 273 3296 9885 4697 72
VCDI 0 0 0 12 1520 10248 20790 23881
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84005 14836 152 123 26 0 2 0
OW 111 4758 848 1262 229 2 0 0
VODI 3 1171 605 4080 1812 119 5 0
ODI 0 88 105 1536 3623 1256 120 0
CDI 0 31 25 361 3165 9375 4839 62
VCDI 0 0 0 10 3619 12900 21652 17827
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84956 16479 181 152 33 5 0 0
OW 136 4506 1206 1269 94 1 0 0
VODI 5 246 336 5036 1314 22 3 0
ODI 0 12 5 692 4596 534 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 96 3493 10228 1234 38
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2524 10329 22342 22617
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86581 15511 121 145 22 0 0 0
OW 256 5038 949 1028 95 0 0 0
VODI 29 831 669 4361 1165 79 9 0
ODI 2 6 18 1176 3982 868 39 1
CDI 0 0 0 180 3904 8597 2039 112
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1791 12587 25128 17423
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86491 16079 162 184 29 0 0 0
OW 343 4471 919 1070 107 5 0 0
VODI 32 822 648 4209 1142 71 8 0
ODI 2 14 28 1232 3837 711 44 1
CDI 0 0 0 193 3970 8731 2128 147
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1874 12613 25035 17388

Date: 2025-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87890 14710 93 120 54 0 0 0
OW 563 5110 748 904 107 5 0 0
VODI 28 1386 807 4002 877 79 9 0
ODI 2 44 68 1640 4151 528 34 0
CDI 0 0 3 334 4513 8215 2061 118
VCDI 0 0 0 6 3062 15799 18725 17948
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 87826 15124 133 161 74 0 0 0
OW 607 4736 705 967 98 6 0 0
VODI 48 1337 777 3721 924 86 9 0
ODI 2 53 102 1726 3763 544 51 0
CDI 0 0 2 425 4762 8218 1939 392
VCDI 0 0 0 6 3143 15772 18830 17674

Date: 2025-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89141 16603 110 130 25 0 0 0
OW 198 4512 1457 982 35 3 0 0
VODI 7 132 149 5122 887 53 6 0
ODI 4 0 0 621 6440 682 29 1
CDI 0 0 0 136 3115 15268 621 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 1379 11667 18713 16513
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 88798 14796 179 212 38 0 0 0
OW 516 4932 700 1084 73 16 0 0
VODI 32 1463 707 3286 1104 97 22 0
ODI 4 53 112 1700 3730 784 104 1
CDI 0 3 18 691 5183 9835 1786 728
VCDI 0 0 0 19 1753 16941 17457 15786

Date: 2025-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90503 16172 136 175 20 0 0 0
OW 186 4537 1102 1163 72 11 0 0
VODI 11 425 369 4142 1374 113 11 0
ODI 4 3 2 975 5321 1018 36 0
CDI 0 3 1 230 3429 14662 2396 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4671 14010 20786 6671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90288 14124 160 245 21 0 0 0
OW 392 5205 702 1034 88 12 0 0
VODI 20 1699 580 3021 1278 110 35 0
ODI 4 99 136 1568 3783 849 149 0
CDI 0 13 32 792 4512 11680 6936 625
VCDI 0 0 0 25 5205 17163 16109 6049

Date: 2025-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91913 15882 117 176 20 0 0 0
OW 250 5012 803 913 116 13 0 0
VODI 16 868 566 3496 1376 178 2 0
ODI 3 21 25 2063 3961 1054 32 0
CDI 0 36 3 538 4033 14398 2038 73
VCDI 0 1 0 0 1202 19396 18005 6144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91632 13361 138 189 21 1 0 0
OW 526 5814 446 847 95 9 0 0
VODI 21 2312 649 2278 1203 165 40 0
ODI 3 255 220 2341 3047 987 149 0
CDI 0 77 61 1482 4232 12180 8168 1067
VCDI 0 1 0 49 2110 21697 11720 5150


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