Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-06-05

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-09

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 71 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 137 33 37 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 55 284 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 12 228 550 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 598 2613 2392 275
VCDI 0 0 0 0 54 539 5973 22865
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 62 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 147 36 32 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 55 296 54 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 11 214 539 43 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 654 2685 2422 226
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 470 5943 22914

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 2 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 70 306 248 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 101 711 1437 237
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 6 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 73 297 227 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 716 1457 237

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 40 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 71 203 627 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 1182 7137 680
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 51 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 186 576 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 1185 7186 680

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 77 14 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 6 14 5 1 0 0
VODI 0 20 13 25 15 9 0 0
ODI 0 13 6 25 32 14 0 0
CDI 0 12 10 79 151 145 39 0
VCDI 0 0 1 25 89 295 2994 1502
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 41 4 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 5 5 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 16 19 15 7 0 0
ODI 0 18 11 35 32 18 0 0
CDI 0 14 14 86 152 131 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 91 308 2992 1502

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 11 5 16 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 10 55 29 2 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 8 139 15 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 204 398 349 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 308 3465 2132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 29 15 71 40 3 1 0
ODI 0 0 1 16 134 15 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 189 343 374 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 362 3432 2137

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 96 9 22 5 0 0 0
OW 0 502 76 69 22 1 0 0
VODI 0 100 96 345 85 34 21 0
ODI 0 17 6 198 193 42 111 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 461 1257 610 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 21 178 659 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 57 4 18 7 0 0 0
OW 0 494 47 53 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 151 123 348 96 38 13 0
ODI 0 12 12 201 213 42 121 0
CDI 0 1 1 77 433 1253 618 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 179 649 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 903 6 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 765 116 103 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 152 133 411 69 13 1 0
ODI 0 4 18 374 833 245 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 468 1056 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 208 286 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 809 3 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 820 116 79 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 193 143 475 74 6 0 0
ODI 0 2 11 358 897 244 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 416 1087 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 185 285 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8071 1878 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 475 49 86 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 81 51 227 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 238 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8071 1795 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 550 46 60 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 58 255 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 232 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6207 2165 33 23 0 0 0 0
OW 0 206 108 160 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 16 345 174 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 106 289 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 477 641 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 172 375 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6207 2153 29 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 220 116 165 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 12 365 154 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 102 271 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 525 672 152 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 130 375 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8629 2929 4 7 8 0 0 0
OW 0 474 149 299 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 15 208 109 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 38 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 30 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8629 2867 3 6 8 0 0 0
OW 0 542 151 307 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 14 197 111 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 14 33 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 34 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12 1046 19 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 256 75 121 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 26 193 201 2 0 0
ODI 0 10 32 155 468 75 8 0
CDI 0 0 3 110 488 1055 1023 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 58 285 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12 1027 21 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 253 71 130 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 34 184 204 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 29 155 471 84 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 106 472 989 845 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 117 462 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 275 26 8 2 0 0 0
OW 0 484 104 255 60 7 0 0
VODI 0 151 64 589 321 28 2 0
ODI 0 7 10 424 619 149 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 177 1506 2585 193 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 162 280 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 207 22 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 553 98 247 58 7 0 0
VODI 0 153 77 605 334 34 0 0
ODI 0 4 7 426 668 168 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 170 1484 2633 177 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 89 304 1

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10058 2485 55 33 0 0 0 0
OW 0 423 122 299 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 25 602 358 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 90 553 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 89 259 197 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10058 2444 34 30 3 0 0 0
OW 0 462 131 267 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 37 630 363 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 97 561 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 245 200 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0


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