Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-22

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-26

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 17 2 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 111 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 562 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 272 2436 242 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 2 1160 12532 19436
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 0 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 9 62 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 45 285 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 516 1488 958 1
VCDI 0 0 0 18 42 2109 11816 19435

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 39 173 16 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 460 1666 653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 59 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 143 574 1644 653

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 107 205 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 429 6544 2624
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 22 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 32 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 127 209 13
VCDI 0 0 0 3 79 457 6376 2611

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 26 18 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 16 21 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 52 10 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 47 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 66 103 6 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 276 3689 1274
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 21 22 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 7 14 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 25 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 33 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 40 86 91 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 291 3604 1276

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 40 48 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 145 995 63 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 285 2675 2962
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 45 13 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 653 62 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 662 2675 2943

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 387 91 47 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 14 298 23 2 1 3
ODI 0 0 0 79 311 26 11 14
CDI 0 0 0 1 230 1617 227 94
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 123 1558 131
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 166 61 115 24 2 5 2
VODI 0 168 28 64 115 27 36 56
ODI 0 49 16 146 63 75 173 81
CDI 0 0 0 100 331 1464 1439 103
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 200 144 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 229 8 5 1 0 0 0
OW 0 286 133 94 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 10 625 152 5 3 0
ODI 0 0 1 75 1117 67 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 406 2243 114 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 51 671 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 202 1 5 1 0 0 0
OW 0 170 47 90 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 95 482 225 12 4 0
ODI 0 8 9 197 838 216 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 607 1995 737 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 143 8 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5766 2741 9 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 267 185 185 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 781 125 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 43 1046 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 73 79 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5766 2389 8 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 594 162 258 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 29 640 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 905 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 175 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5474 2202 9 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 314 156 86 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 7 398 109 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 895 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 309 1105 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 482 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5474 1993 6 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 500 95 64 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 69 378 273 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 60 674 381 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 352 738 514 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 36 9 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8420 2965 61 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 361 180 312 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 6 9 468 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 33 82 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8420 2684 56 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 605 134 308 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 58 472 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 24 55 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 318 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 304 151 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 19 377 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 78 192 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 303 1464 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 248 2172 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 225 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 200 25 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 180 119 139 4 2 0 0
ODI 0 19 21 222 38 7 1 0
CDI 0 11 5 161 444 1225 711 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 492 1525 1

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 151 12 59 9 0 0 0
OW 0 114 45 131 44 5 2 0
VODI 0 22 14 387 231 26 5 0
ODI 0 0 1 95 472 89 14 0
CDI 0 4 0 34 596 1181 107 0
VCDI 0 5 0 3 36 2020 2518 106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 114 10 81 35 1 0 0
OW 0 80 28 131 74 10 3 0
VODI 0 69 13 212 217 82 9 0
ODI 0 24 20 158 296 148 20 0
CDI 0 3 1 124 608 675 179 0
VCDI 0 6 0 3 158 2405 2435 106

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9625 2830 22 8 1 0 0 0
OW 0 264 95 155 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 8 588 120 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 950 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 151 529 36 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 53 160 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9578 2584 25 33 1 0 0 0
OW 47 475 68 174 17 1 0 0
VODI 0 47 29 475 238 19 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 109 688 124 1 0
CDI 0 1 1 35 278 423 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 10 64 62 0


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