Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-22

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-26

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 0 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 9 60 29 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 42 245 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 26 535 1507 838 11
VCDI 0 0 0 18 61 2093 11936 19425
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 0 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 9 62 27 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 45 285 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 21 516 1488 958 1
VCDI 0 0 0 18 42 2109 11816 19435

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 60 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 149 573 1651 653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 59 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 143 574 1644 653

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 15 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 18 107 146 18
VCDI 0 0 0 3 90 515 6451 2606
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 22 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 32 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 127 209 13
VCDI 0 0 0 3 79 457 6376 2611

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 25 29 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 18 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 25 16 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 30 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 43 71 18 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 306 3677 1269
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 21 22 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 7 14 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 5 25 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 33 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 40 86 91 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 291 3604 1276

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 0 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 148 989 196 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 31 339 2541 2946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 45 13 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 653 62 23
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 662 2675 2943

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 12 1 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 260 70 99 6 2 6 14
VODI 0 98 23 103 70 8 27 64
ODI 0 21 11 109 102 42 141 56
CDI 0 0 0 108 359 1487 1200 105
VCDI 0 0 0 1 28 229 423 3
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 166 61 115 24 2 5 2
VODI 0 168 28 64 115 27 36 56
ODI 0 49 16 146 63 75 173 81
CDI 0 0 0 100 331 1464 1439 103
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 200 144 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 195 1 5 2 0 0 0
OW 0 199 57 108 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 89 435 220 5 3 0
ODI 0 7 5 215 841 318 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 40 598 1880 755 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 163 6 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 202 1 5 1 0 0 0
OW 0 170 47 90 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 95 482 225 12 4 0
ODI 0 8 9 197 838 216 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 607 1995 737 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 143 8 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5766 2455 12 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 531 157 270 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 30 623 137 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 114 919 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 186 82 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5766 2389 8 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 594 162 258 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 29 640 164 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 110 905 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 175 66 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5474 2071 10 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 425 103 91 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 58 359 279 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 51 672 338 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 357 807 534 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5474 1993 6 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 500 95 64 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 69 378 273 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 60 674 381 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 352 738 514 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 36 9 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8420 2724 60 27 0 0 0 0
OW 0 566 135 326 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 53 446 83 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 31 52 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8420 2684 56 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 605 134 308 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 58 472 86 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 24 55 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 266 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 167 51 27 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 177 94 128 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 20 222 39 28 1 0
CDI 0 9 5 148 446 1190 484 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 508 1752 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 225 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 200 25 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 180 119 139 4 2 0 0
ODI 0 19 21 222 38 7 1 0
CDI 0 11 5 161 444 1225 711 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 492 1525 1

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 141 14 99 47 2 1 0
OW 0 71 26 147 102 15 4 0
VODI 0 42 12 195 197 85 6 0
ODI 0 33 16 136 270 126 18 0
CDI 0 4 4 127 592 647 199 0
VCDI 0 5 0 5 180 2446 2418 106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 114 10 81 35 1 0 0
OW 0 80 28 131 74 10 3 0
VODI 0 69 13 212 217 82 9 0
ODI 0 24 20 158 296 148 20 0
CDI 0 3 1 124 608 675 179 0
VCDI 0 6 0 3 158 2405 2435 106

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9567 2687 26 38 1 0 0 0
OW 58 380 72 197 25 3 0 0
VODI 0 39 25 437 230 19 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 114 696 129 0 0
CDI 0 2 1 42 268 416 104 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 64 92 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9578 2584 25 33 1 0 0 0
OW 47 475 68 174 17 1 0 0
VODI 0 47 29 475 238 19 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 109 688 124 1 0
CDI 0 1 1 35 278 423 133 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 10 64 62 0


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