Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-15

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-19

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 9 5 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 12 146 10 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 66 423 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 370 1742 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1076 13580 19268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 1 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 9 97 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 10 51 218 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 81 515 1355 683 2185
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 1448 13025 17083

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 24 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 100 675 2309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 45 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 98 653 2276

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 30 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 393 4697 4775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 46 4
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 400 4684 4772

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 33 23 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 37 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 33 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 52 8 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 88 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 83 2081 3158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 33 24 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 29 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 64 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 57 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 51 95 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 66 1988 3157

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 38 7 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 103 530 3062 3477
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 67
VCDI 0 0 0 0 103 568 3059 3411

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 9
OW 0 307 93 52 5 0 0 10
VODI 0 7 50 188 16 3 0 26
ODI 0 0 0 142 80 6 21 54
CDI 0 0 0 88 350 406 178 70
VCDI 0 0 0 3 42 521 2510 56
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 3 0 3 0 0 0 19
OW 0 69 19 31 5 0 0 41
VODI 0 132 38 47 7 4 28 66
ODI 0 107 57 96 35 17 175 61
CDI 0 5 29 234 179 172 385 11
VCDI 0 0 0 66 267 743 2121 27

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 296 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 259 83 49 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 39 680 51 3 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 191 666 52 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 375 2378 348 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 86 739 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 239 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 185 14 29 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 125 74 250 30 8 0 0
ODI 0 10 16 331 310 29 5 0
CDI 0 1 17 316 746 2243 347 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 239 741 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5424 2703 15 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 404 263 144 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 15 749 127 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 922 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 166 327 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5424 2405 9 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 593 142 160 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 142 699 231 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 538 70 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 445 279 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4376 2650 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 356 131 72 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 14 718 83 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 1438 98 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 368 931 84 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 8 333 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4376 2493 4 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 409 62 93 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 104 78 529 111 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 203 904 77 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 874 954 270 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 147 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7771 3183 81 101 4 0 0 0
OW 0 261 119 207 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 17 916 82 3 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 14 117 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 44 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7771 3101 87 110 8 0 0 0
OW 0 317 67 299 42 2 0 0
VODI 0 47 63 767 95 10 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 62 70 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 12 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 129 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 210 70 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 5 273 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 64 323 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 317 1091 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 927 2274 10
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 88 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 155 9 7 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 51 96 82 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 155 157 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 107 386 523 74 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 51 1477 2232 10

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 37 18 50 5 0 0 0
OW 0 100 48 55 19 7 0 0
VODI 0 0 10 265 101 21 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 303 86 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 380 1038 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 82 1049 4266 368
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 31 16 52 4 2 0 0
OW 0 78 19 35 27 11 0 0
VODI 0 25 29 112 100 47 10 0
ODI 0 3 12 164 207 135 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 119 336 653 234 0
VCDI 0 0 0 37 216 1353 4087 368

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9140 3042 9 10 0 0 0 0
OW 159 421 115 111 0 0 0 0
VODI 56 54 31 478 87 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 641 35 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 232 643 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 128 175 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9045 2730 5 16 0 0 0 0
OW 201 476 81 114 0 0 0 0
VODI 94 306 62 362 120 10 0 0
ODI 15 5 7 149 512 77 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 277 518 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 59 202 132 0


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