Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-08

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-12

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 34 14 25 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 11 145 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 81 313 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 602 642 11 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 1472 12057 21349
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 10 2 16 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 10 30 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 9 121 48 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 9 124 781 288 251 10
VCDI 0 0 0 15 152 1826 11817 21339

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 85 382 2621
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 13 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 86 377 2619

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 46 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 34 1755 8139
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 32 89 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 48 1670 8119

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 25 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 64 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 49 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 67 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 66 1866 3435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 0 20 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 53 10 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 32 12 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 51 97 41
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 81 1785 3394

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 4
CDI 0 0 0 5 32 14 0 44
VCDI 0 0 0 25 60 169 1764 5104
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 26
CDI 0 0 0 4 26 6 0 174
VCDI 0 0 0 26 67 177 1764 4946

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 3
OW 0 85 66 35 9 0 1 14
VODI 0 30 47 300 19 0 3 32
ODI 0 4 8 205 99 4 6 66
CDI 0 0 0 58 230 133 178 66
VCDI 0 0 0 14 97 465 2666 338
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 65
OW 0 0 4 9 8 0 3 47
VODI 0 17 33 84 8 0 48 41
ODI 0 22 23 41 11 1 96 45
CDI 0 98 52 276 138 50 320 14
VCDI 0 0 9 202 289 551 2386 307

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 228 1 9 3 0 0 0
OW 0 91 43 43 7 3 2 0
VODI 0 12 3 232 113 6 6 0
ODI 0 1 2 31 466 35 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 509 1675 174 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 438 2142 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 188 0 15 3 0 0 0
OW 0 86 5 32 20 3 2 0
VODI 0 47 38 129 99 12 13 0
ODI 0 6 2 108 226 57 20 0
CDI 0 5 4 39 647 1138 411 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 130 947 1885 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5277 2377 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 19 496 198 106 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 14 793 104 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 72 783 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 345 643 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 72 4 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5230 2233 6 2 0 0 0 0
OW 66 475 78 51 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 159 94 370 21 3 0 0
ODI 0 7 36 503 499 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 45 706 490 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 230 4 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4472 2863 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 342 111 13 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 38 356 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 661 55 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 277 1633 109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 642 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4472 2849 9 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 314 68 53 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 59 255 132 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 15 97 430 200 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 406 1475 636 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 115 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7587 3206 50 61 9 0 0 0
OW 0 163 80 178 16 2 0 0
VODI 0 3 8 460 210 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 578 66 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 111 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 22 26 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7587 3084 56 97 13 0 0 0
OW 0 278 61 218 75 16 0 0
VODI 0 10 21 383 410 80 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 80 335 84 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 17 42 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 88 24 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 5 224 37 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 310 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 299 804 203 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 318 3217 189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 75 19 45 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 7 144 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 71 167 37 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 411 676 850 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 415 2569 189

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 82 18 17 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 10 91 76 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 89 315 58 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 536 967 93 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 771 4648 630
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 5 1 1 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 3 27 74 20 0 0
ODI 0 34 5 45 189 69 13 0
CDI 0 18 23 140 460 549 144 21
VCDI 0 0 0 27 254 1166 4589 616

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8600 3047 37 40 1 0 0 0
OW 0 258 57 238 6 1 0 0
VODI 0 6 3 579 216 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 1125 143 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 252 787 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 52 224 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8600 2796 27 13 1 0 0 0
OW 0 484 50 356 44 2 0 0
VODI 0 31 20 447 364 69 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 79 726 303 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 460 522 52 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 94 199 0


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