Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-05-01

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-05-05

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 21 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 24 23 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 182 666 695 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 945 6185 28065
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 0 25 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 178 624 435 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 989 6445 28055

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 34 427 2653
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 34 427 2654

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 14 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 67 312 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 51 1842 7648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 15 22 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 71 357 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 46 1798 7637

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 33 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 62 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 41 38 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 205 1921 3273
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 44 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 65 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 54 37 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 204 1917 3273

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 12
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 52
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 166 1738 5201
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 45 0 55
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 168 1738 5197

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 38 3 0 18
VODI 0 0 0 2 72 4 5 55
ODI 0 0 0 3 78 10 15 41
CDI 0 0 0 0 322 99 196 102
VCDI 0 0 0 4 531 619 2679 396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 23 3 0 7
VODI 0 0 0 1 73 4 2 62
ODI 0 0 0 4 92 11 20 51
CDI 0 0 0 0 379 108 250 104
VCDI 0 0 0 4 476 609 2623 388

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 76 2 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 181 5 3 4 3 0 0
VODI 0 81 40 33 11 11 1 0
ODI 0 12 27 125 26 24 6 0
CDI 0 0 5 164 361 334 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 183 2504 2022 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 63 1 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 190 4 3 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 91 49 38 13 10 2 0
ODI 0 6 25 144 26 29 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 140 360 330 39 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 183 2507 2025 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4199 2710 35 31 0 0 0 0
OW 26 287 86 172 22 0 0 0
VODI 2 83 44 267 125 10 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 157 534 242 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 271 1060 597 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 43 296 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4195 2704 38 42 0 0 0 0
OW 30 288 90 168 38 0 0 0
VODI 2 90 35 270 146 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 6 140 555 353 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 210 904 395 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 93 498 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4033 3138 66 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 101 98 184 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 24 255 127 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 305 69 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 202 1494 150 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 281 1047 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4033 3116 55 48 0 0 0 0
OW 0 123 111 182 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 22 265 154 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 288 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 190 1469 127 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 296 1070 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7815 3234 116 167 9 0 0 0
OW 0 61 45 201 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 14 113 205 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 38 282 110 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 208 126 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7815 3214 107 133 5 0 0 0
OW 0 72 50 222 90 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 18 126 213 38 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 43 306 123 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 180 117 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 31 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 27 33 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 12 138 47 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 100 111 30 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 316 927 590 38
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 476 2609 233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 32 2 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 34 22 32 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 17 147 53 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 121 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 301 918 598 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 467 2601 249

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 9 15 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 132 128 24 5
CDI 0 0 0 0 133 546 273 40
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 678 4655 1840
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 20 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 114 114 29 5
CDI 0 0 0 0 140 517 274 43
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 731 4651 1837

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7855 4003 47 39 0 0 0 0
OW 1 262 96 336 69 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 31 312 268 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 42 401 143 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 245 917 343 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 60 238 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7854 3996 57 55 3 0 0 0
OW 2 271 87 345 67 0 0 0
VODI 0 8 30 305 298 13 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 414 125 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 196 898 305 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 101 276 0


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