Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-04-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64815 16971 445 526 57 1 0 0
OW 17 1199 337 855 429 18 0 0
VODI 7 267 141 1163 1185 307 15 3
ODI 4 14 29 499 1562 1070 96 11
CDI 4 13 0 116 1698 4237 2243 80
VCDI 1 0 0 15 662 5093 32654 55884
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64557 17155 426 646 91 0 0 0
OW 11 1234 287 972 449 18 0 0
VODI 8 281 199 1292 1202 330 4 0
ODI 4 19 19 551 1628 975 107 21
CDI 5 4 2 127 1760 3498 2180 230
VCDI 0 0 0 7 745 5075 31348 57276
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65140 17290 480 755 121 0 0 0
OW 13 841 463 1044 376 10 0 0
VODI 9 53 78 1445 1509 240 3 0
ODI 3 4 0 279 1976 1015 61 11
CDI 5 0 0 46 1240 5009 2132 192
VCDI 0 0 0 0 272 3138 30808 58682
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65143 16977 400 833 75 0 0 0
OW 20 1000 449 1276 351 22 1 0
VODI 6 81 143 1389 1530 283 9 2
ODI 3 6 2 334 2140 1382 166 31
CDI 3 0 1 58 1144 4450 3578 274
VCDI 0 0 0 12 457 2713 31199 56800
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65141 16982 418 843 74 1 0 0
OW 21 961 413 1271 358 17 1 0
VODI 7 115 161 1363 1490 284 18 3
ODI 2 6 2 350 2188 1454 202 41
CDI 4 0 1 59 1125 4420 3866 368
VCDI 0 0 0 16 462 2674 30866 56695

Date: 2025-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65663 16752 356 464 45 0 0 0
OW 16 1312 412 1391 420 26 1 0
VODI 7 238 191 1370 1493 402 48 0
ODI 3 33 26 572 2051 1490 286 11
CDI 2 9 6 140 1556 4126 3186 149
VCDI 0 0 0 47 749 3299 33716 52679
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65655 16807 382 518 55 0 0 0
OW 23 1212 382 1313 414 24 11 0
VODI 6 289 188 1356 1494 392 65 0
ODI 3 27 33 597 2091 1522 343 32
CDI 4 9 5 144 1525 4051 3427 202
VCDI 0 0 1 56 735 3354 33391 52605

Date: 2025-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67024 16110 332 288 22 0 0 0
OW 53 1247 734 957 128 6 0 0
VODI 10 56 61 2802 1098 73 5 0
ODI 2 13 3 288 3420 494 73 0
CDI 0 26 0 64 1160 5425 770 22
VCDI 0 0 0 3 518 4151 36370 50935
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67013 15565 346 404 63 7 0 0
OW 55 1385 458 1380 383 50 11 0
VODI 15 411 241 1478 1675 319 93 1
ODI 4 32 64 821 2132 1523 260 22
CDI 2 10 2 219 1265 3866 3408 145
VCDI 0 49 19 100 828 4384 33446 50789

Date: 2025-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66435 16308 342 297 7 0 0 0
OW 8 1532 599 1239 255 3 0 2
VODI 5 99 155 2794 1414 82 10 28
ODI 2 8 5 379 2776 794 57 38
CDI 0 4 2 83 1367 4982 2066 166
VCDI 0 0 0 5 759 5592 34393 49651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66428 15769 413 538 69 0 0 0
OW 15 1590 384 1565 597 57 4 1
VODI 4 536 221 1560 1758 392 59 63
ODI 3 52 60 800 2017 1488 288 59
CDI 0 4 5 272 1270 4260 4581 148
VCDI 0 0 20 62 867 5256 31594 49614

Date: 2025-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66609 15813 248 227 12 0 0 0
OW 10 1973 605 1245 209 1 0 24
VODI 2 145 247 2815 1556 91 23 60
ODI 1 10 6 550 2841 927 138 51
CDI 0 6 0 132 1804 5638 2378 153
VCDI 0 0 0 50 1014 6295 31961 48873
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 66607 15498 408 558 81 1 0 0
OW 10 1772 447 1683 595 29 1 2
VODI 3 625 179 1610 2041 398 101 89
ODI 1 48 66 752 2065 1279 246 80
CDI 1 4 6 299 1394 5533 4181 231
VCDI 0 0 0 117 1260 5712 29971 48759


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