Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-04-10

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-04-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 3 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 25 18 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 27 18 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 39 119 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 306 5693 30580
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 14 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 25 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 50 99 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 24 338 5706 30580

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 99 1406 1607
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 104 1401 1607

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 22 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 24 92 13 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 378 3125 6262
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 28 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 9 97 61 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 72 368 3077 6261

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 97 1642 3897
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 102 1642 3897

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 28 1797 5379
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 14 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 1795 5377

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 49
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 74
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5208

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 136 20 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 19 19 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 11 31 31 1 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 59 207 232 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 67 716 4551 69
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 26 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 123 3 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 14 11 2 1 0 0
ODI 0 22 16 10 30 9 6 0
CDI 0 6 15 35 169 178 133 0
VCDI 0 0 2 65 106 761 4444 69

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3903 3614 100 114 0 0 0 0
OW 0 125 67 227 53 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 6 162 209 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 24 272 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 119 966 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 94 983 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3901 3546 82 112 0 0 0 0
OW 2 188 80 240 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 9 128 236 29 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 36 134 334 21 0
CDI 0 0 1 31 205 743 327 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 38 113 721 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4121 3447 115 109 3 0 0 0
OW 0 22 74 218 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 143 136 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 126 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 91 251 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 499 1959 188
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4121 3395 86 67 1 0 0 0
OW 0 74 96 200 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 8 161 108 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 118 39 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 156 296 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 469 1873 188

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7945 3130 161 200 43 0 0 0
OW 0 31 50 188 89 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 5 138 86 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 20 77 46 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 95 159 27 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 280 163 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7945 3137 153 186 50 0 0 0
OW 0 24 59 170 86 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 127 75 52 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 48 74 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 111 114 77 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 271 112 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 26 23 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 52 136 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 109 265 436 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 63 309 3005 1243
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 9 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 79 272 242 241 0
VCDI 0 0 0 87 204 517 2880 1243

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 33 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 48 14 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 69 152 170 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 692 4219 3111
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 25 12 12 12
CDI 0 0 0 0 63 73 378 79
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 779 4006 3034

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6197 4325 57 94 13 0 0 0
OW 0 201 90 219 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 16 386 280 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 94 709 112 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 380 1107 86 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 50 388 886 4
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6197 4213 55 73 10 0 0 0
OW 0 232 58 191 110 0 0 0
VODI 0 69 36 296 204 19 1 0
ODI 0 14 11 176 578 184 8 3
CDI 0 2 3 55 413 886 345 5
VCDI 0 0 0 12 146 521 619 1


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