Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-01-23

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-01-27

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 39 7 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 35 16 26 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 13 21 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 24 26 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 49 119 64 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 116 581 4935 30751
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 36 6 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 37 9 20 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 18 22 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 8 28 28 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 104 38 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 130 607 4946 30751

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 587 2519
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 13 587 2519

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 257 2709 7012
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 257 2709 7011

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 159 2421 3073
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 159 2421 3073

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 236 2942 4042
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 236 2942 4042

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 203 1553 3543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 203 1551 3543

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 101 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 39 1 0 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 24 5 9 1 17 1 0
ODI 0 14 5 13 1 36 8 0
CDI 0 5 15 45 22 136 67 3
VCDI 0 0 0 31 117 435 2931 2234
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 80 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 49 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 2 8 1 11 0 0
ODI 0 19 6 15 2 51 8 0
CDI 0 8 17 34 23 143 69 3
VCDI 0 0 1 41 115 420 2930 2234

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4243 3997 52 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 203 47 89 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 52 206 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 13 114 151 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 50 284 353 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 128 283 760 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4243 3925 48 36 0 0 0 0
OW 0 233 40 96 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 96 54 209 35 0 0 0
ODI 0 11 23 110 175 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 50 265 340 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 123 291 788 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5124 3198 78 48 3 0 0 0
OW 0 121 31 74 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 26 82 39 3 0 0
ODI 0 16 22 48 71 23 0 0
CDI 0 9 13 85 114 118 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 109 431 1526 186
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5124 3141 72 44 2 0 0 0
OW 0 152 34 71 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 26 81 37 3 0 0
ODI 0 23 26 66 75 23 0 0
CDI 0 8 12 79 131 124 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 18 93 425 1517 186

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8114 3084 101 126 24 1 0 0
OW 0 96 40 107 70 13 0 0
VODI 0 14 32 143 53 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 85 87 28 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 132 128 107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 180 148 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8114 3052 101 122 35 3 0 0
OW 0 129 38 120 58 22 0 0
VODI 0 13 34 129 57 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 84 89 23 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 125 123 116 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 178 137 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 57 2 0 6 15 0 0
OW 0 18 4 4 5 19 0 0
VODI 0 14 11 7 13 31 0 0
ODI 0 1 6 26 10 26 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 30 40 83 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 143 274 2990 1831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 55 1 0 6 10 0 0
OW 0 24 6 3 1 16 0 0
VODI 0 11 12 16 9 34 0 0
ODI 0 0 4 23 19 32 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 38 93 80 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 144 263 3033 1831

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 54 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 768 5086 2518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 58 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 764 5147 2518

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7158 4629 118 64 3 0 0 0
OW 0 461 44 160 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 281 22 208 137 9 0 0
ODI 0 75 14 91 97 94 0 0
CDI 0 29 8 44 118 266 38 0
VCDI 0 2 0 32 38 703 731 52
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7158 4561 99 46 2 0 0 0
OW 0 516 63 158 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 282 22 236 136 8 0 0
ODI 0 85 14 93 120 98 0 0
CDI 0 31 8 30 113 254 51 0
VCDI 0 2 0 36 30 712 718 52


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