Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-01-16

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-01-20

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 7 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 19 10 30 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 14 33 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 46 29 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 129 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 209 5224 31018
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 8 41 9 0 0 0
OW 0 9 9 16 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 9 28 15 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 23 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 145 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 181 5194 31018

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 98 921 2079
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 119 921 2079

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 39 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 482 3213 6210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 39 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 482 3207 6210

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 623 2503 2498
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 626 2503 2498

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5291

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 114 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 11 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 8 48 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 32 64 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 123 156 24 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 73 229 2343 2960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 113 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 42 7 9 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 18 2 54 48 0 0 0
ODI 0 7 8 10 76 32 0 0
CDI 0 3 3 29 42 102 8 7
VCDI 0 1 2 16 99 251 2359 2954

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4102 3927 102 41 0 0 0 0
OW 3 112 76 195 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 32 17 220 119 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 38 247 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 161 499 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 49 322 985 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4103 3910 122 187 6 0 0 0
OW 2 83 39 130 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 15 109 118 3 0 0
ODI 0 14 12 38 145 44 0 0
CDI 0 11 6 24 186 504 163 0
VCDI 0 2 2 10 77 294 863 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4861 3433 82 98 9 0 0 0
OW 0 98 73 102 54 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 15 96 62 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 57 76 36 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 109 182 51 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 40 211 1726 182
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4861 3319 74 62 3 0 0 0
OW 0 155 44 99 50 1 0 0
VODI 0 49 27 72 52 20 0 0
ODI 0 11 20 56 41 45 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 78 158 191 75 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 46 193 1702 182

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8181 3033 83 102 5 0 0 0
OW 0 144 51 87 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 37 103 66 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 77 75 28 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 114 93 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 54 157 369 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8181 2974 82 102 2 0 0 0
OW 0 113 12 78 57 3 0 0
VODI 0 83 31 28 57 16 0 0
ODI 0 19 46 65 34 24 0 0
CDI 0 0 9 128 71 73 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 24 131 170 345 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 20 0 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 66 0 33 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 4 42 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 10 6 9 40 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 5 38 84 63 34 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 107 321 2878 1986
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 42 0 16 0 0 0 0
OW 0 26 0 41 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 0 25 36 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 5 3 41 19 0 0
CDI 0 12 5 17 53 87 63 1
VCDI 0 0 5 31 119 279 2849 1985

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0
OW 0 28 23 58 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 19 74 77 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 135 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 83 390 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 1210 4330 1945
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 10 68 5 0 0 0
OW 0 26 16 48 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 16 41 98 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 96 104 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 56 291 180 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1217 4162 1945

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10817 2356 14 5 0 0 0 0
OW 90 263 61 55 0 0 0 0
VODI 4 54 31 292 95 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 82 197 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 160 94 29 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 81 226 658 49
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10783 2328 48 40 2 0 0 0
OW 122 168 15 82 17 0 0 0
VODI 6 133 16 126 84 5 0 0
ODI 0 41 22 107 147 22 0 0
CDI 0 4 8 88 108 60 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 175 234 672 49


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