Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-01-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-01-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72278 16932 462 582 96 12 0 0
OW 38 1175 358 813 453 136 1 0
VODI 11 220 149 923 1084 481 124 0
ODI 0 41 27 372 1037 761 203 1
CDI 0 22 22 269 1063 2556 1293 39
VCDI 10 0 2 59 405 4070 21383 64780
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74722 14048 392 347 7 0 0 0
OW 126 1442 343 897 284 42 0 0
VODI 0 306 134 968 1065 299 60 0
ODI 0 93 37 373 1082 706 310 0
CDI 0 47 35 282 1207 2053 895 80
VCDI 0 37 31 220 730 4613 24750 61680
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74111 14648 418 350 17 8 0 0
OW 38 1408 387 882 186 20 0 0
VODI 2 225 138 1017 813 96 0 0
ODI 0 47 44 317 897 634 5 0
CDI 0 15 45 244 1045 2831 1024 49
VCDI 0 9 2 144 611 4849 28250 58917
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72528 15735 411 390 5 9 0 0
OW 145 1259 339 861 175 38 0 0
VODI 24 305 141 892 698 201 2 0
ODI 2 88 63 340 738 496 71 0
CDI 3 23 57 280 1024 1832 1421 35
VCDI 7 1 18 107 609 3612 24615 65143
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72605 16171 526 598 11 12 0 0
OW 80 925 285 973 354 53 0 0
VODI 13 249 116 721 712 313 29 0
ODI 1 49 52 301 769 611 209 1
CDI 4 17 36 197 920 1966 1705 63
VCDI 6 0 14 80 483 3233 24166 65114

Date: 2025-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71180 16543 421 438 25 0 0 0
OW 207 1065 264 905 199 6 0 0
VODI 21 415 149 863 747 135 0 0
ODI 1 102 47 435 810 447 6 0
CDI 4 24 17 397 1122 1744 851 30
VCDI 7 0 6 77 786 4795 25224 64228
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71287 17053 540 723 44 0 0 0
OW 110 720 211 975 396 34 0 0
VODI 12 290 98 743 808 267 13 0
ODI 1 71 36 358 789 566 99 0
CDI 3 14 12 261 948 1791 1138 44
VCDI 7 1 7 55 704 4469 24831 64214

Date: 2025-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72682 15384 333 375 15 0 0 0
OW 132 915 378 721 134 1 0 0
VODI 10 181 135 1164 666 31 0 0
ODI 0 23 24 370 1258 270 7 0
CDI 0 3 5 166 1028 2477 454 6
VCDI 10 0 0 15 588 4988 26841 62953
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72636 15242 458 756 41 0 0 0
OW 176 685 148 705 429 30 0 0
VODI 12 431 109 555 723 286 9 0
ODI 0 113 114 320 783 543 147 1
CDI 3 32 37 370 892 1941 1049 31
VCDI 7 3 9 105 821 4967 26097 62927

Date: 2025-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71497 15917 440 406 20 0 0 0
OW 112 773 205 826 127 0 0 0
VODI 14 291 102 664 625 47 0 0
ODI 0 104 45 295 958 395 7 1
CDI 0 18 28 195 1033 2463 796 37
VCDI 0 4 2 54 613 5114 27501 63014
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71455 15369 450 586 72 3 0 0
OW 131 854 143 667 280 71 2 0
VODI 37 536 77 449 501 239 56 0
ODI 0 248 81 279 632 458 183 6
CDI 0 96 61 336 1068 1941 1117 103
VCDI 0 4 10 123 823 5307 26946 62943

Date: 2025-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70709 16230 371 317 49 0 0 0
OW 54 1026 276 838 135 9 0 0
VODI 13 426 160 788 580 51 0 0
ODI 2 128 73 372 814 404 16 0
CDI 0 35 21 256 788 2098 1348 59
VCDI 0 11 9 72 624 4677 26224 64680
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70663 15375 331 518 168 10 0 0
OW 60 1134 235 474 217 36 1 0
VODI 51 831 111 723 385 144 40 0
ODI 4 344 100 357 551 372 105 0
CDI 0 167 121 400 810 1460 1310 38
VCDI 0 5 12 171 859 5217 26132 64701


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