Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2025-01-09

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-01-13

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 34 13 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 7 28 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 12 33 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 20 62 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 28 130 190 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 114 654 5797 29666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 41 18 22 1 0 0 0
OW 0 26 2 27 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 11 19 30 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 3 35 83 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 99 179 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 117 656 5777 29666

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 40 267 2809
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 31 266 2809

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 69 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 259 2583 7028
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 50 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 264 2612 7028

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 12 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 120 283 1908 3298
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 5 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 126 285 1908 3298

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7224

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 1057 4217
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 1052 4208

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6 190 6 0 0 0 0 0
OW 3 155 36 7 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 23 137 5 0 0 0
ODI 0 14 3 63 36 0 0 0
CDI 0 23 20 44 115 100 25 1
VCDI 0 0 5 51 136 390 3920 765
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6 224 29 6 0 0 0 0
OW 3 94 22 81 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 14 92 34 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 5 41 66 3 0 0
CDI 0 19 10 30 92 100 76 2
VCDI 0 18 13 52 100 387 3869 764

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4665 3773 117 53 0 0 0 0
OW 0 63 61 178 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 8 215 172 1 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 39 226 51 0 0
CDI 0 8 6 19 106 470 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 88 188 739 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4664 3742 147 150 5 0 0 0
OW 1 71 30 171 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 6 116 176 36 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 47 149 194 3 0
CDI 0 11 4 15 112 387 410 0
VCDI 0 4 4 17 96 93 367 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5181 3112 46 69 12 0 0 0
OW 0 165 92 135 37 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 7 138 90 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 11 25 71 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 6 36 99 119 8 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 77 455 1596 35
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5181 2930 14 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 281 96 98 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 26 177 82 9 0 0
ODI 0 25 3 63 58 18 0 0
CDI 0 13 18 31 133 128 6 0
VCDI 0 0 5 61 105 453 1598 35

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8111 3014 56 60 0 0 0 0
OW 0 185 49 119 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 15 32 101 71 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 76 124 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 25 156 217 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 277 240 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8111 3042 63 77 0 0 0 0
OW 0 84 22 109 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 18 45 61 0 0 0
ODI 0 23 21 44 64 47 0 0
CDI 0 1 13 99 174 230 60 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 70 229 180 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 8 4 47 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 36 59 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 50 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 37 262 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 393 3173 1565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 4 0 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 8 16 82 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 45 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 39 69 7 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 19 122 148 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 430 3114 1564

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 371 40 17 0 0 0 0
OW 0 89 46 84 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 94 153 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 293 99 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 129 426 31 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 291 2891 3459
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 360 41 51 0 0 0 0
OW 0 92 35 98 68 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 11 46 232 142 17 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 113 214 346 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 142 187 381 64
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 278 2179 3401

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12039 1547 78 101 3 0 0 0
OW 25 310 32 112 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 11 100 103 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 31 172 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 110 159 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 160 492 45
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12048 1553 78 151 25 0 0 0
OW 16 240 29 62 81 5 0 0
VODI 0 69 6 68 66 24 0 0
ODI 0 4 7 49 76 59 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 24 164 136 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 29 137 494 45


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