Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-12-21

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-12-25

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 17 10 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 28 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 32 19 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 106 85 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 163 4406 31988
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 2 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 15 7 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 3 29 6 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 37 107 107 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 141 4349 31988

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 133 590 2391
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 133 589 2392

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 55 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 518 3233 6144
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 58 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 513 3233 6144

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 416 3441 1779
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 424 3441 1779

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 545 6649
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 30 545 6649

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 1281 3999
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 1281 3999

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 66 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 3 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 151 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 77 474 14 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 327 627 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 38 488 3150 813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 67 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 0 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 2 103 68 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 78 350 70 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 313 533 375 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 127 510 2797 813

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4894 3195 71 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 141 77 165 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 46 17 319 81 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 71 269 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 194 385 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 63 599 624 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4894 3190 97 46 0 0 0 0
OW 0 134 43 201 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 49 24 214 99 1 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 89 164 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 44 212 275 168 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 126 713 506 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5304 2661 28 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 249 39 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 52 84 14 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 25 74 42 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 120 247 157 4 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 1690 802 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5304 2577 33 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 167 14 47 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 109 15 32 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 56 31 20 35 1 0 0
CDI 0 18 53 183 133 121 7 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 136 1725 799 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8416 2669 66 108 9 0 0 0
OW 0 79 76 72 59 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 116 82 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 94 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 115 394 57 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 209 304 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8416 2537 70 99 4 0 0 0
OW 0 156 24 74 81 1 0 0
VODI 0 55 47 58 81 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 96 43 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 149 294 42 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 282 319 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 541 16 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 32 35 75 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 119 38 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 119 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 121 313 38 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 645 2621 1002
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5 532 26 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 40 20 65 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 6 75 58 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 60 34 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 133 268 252 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 47 667 2407 1002

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18 382 27 63 21 4 0 0
OW 6 42 15 127 55 50 3 0
VODI 0 8 1 340 273 71 14 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 583 138 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 326 642 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 12 107 1407 3281 268
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19 401 37 150 158 90 0 0
OW 5 20 3 136 85 100 23 0
VODI 0 11 3 160 226 153 103 0
ODI 0 0 0 91 322 151 105 0
CDI 0 0 0 57 361 410 246 1
VCDI 0 0 0 31 213 1408 2992 267

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12137 1374 7 2 0 0 0 0
OW 35 678 74 49 0 0 0 0
VODI 4 77 25 200 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 6 47 85 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 127 80 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 35 396 264 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12107 1261 2 0 0 0 0 0
OW 69 306 35 45 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 307 43 111 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 158 11 81 49 0 0 0
CDI 0 94 20 67 108 10 3 0
VCDI 0 6 1 16 94 466 261 0


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