Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-11-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 103390 10881 502 576 42 0 0 0
OW 174 843 409 1264 235 48 0 0
VODI 25 178 164 1215 751 141 1 0
ODI 0 52 21 552 902 319 0 0
CDI 0 20 8 149 930 1501 302 1
VCDI 0 0 0 51 582 5337 24544 38633
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101812 11043 319 480 29 0 0 0
OW 113 1045 358 1055 383 40 0 0
VODI 19 395 158 1167 955 109 4 0
ODI 0 78 24 504 1120 350 0 0
CDI 0 20 3 210 1042 1546 86 26
VCDI 0 1 1 97 528 5342 25111 39170
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99694 12759 363 583 27 0 0 0
OW 92 864 424 963 187 3 0 0
VODI 17 141 134 1424 910 42 0 0
ODI 0 14 10 442 1661 221 0 0
CDI 0 1 2 98 1291 1870 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 597 6982 25887 36920
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97494 13211 370 780 284 0 0 0
OW 120 458 301 923 647 43 0 0
VODI 9 104 72 767 1190 79 0 0
ODI 0 11 20 225 1563 469 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 113 1162 2495 160 9
VCDI 0 0 0 102 570 5562 24269 41158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97507 13192 379 791 329 0 0 0
OW 108 473 291 908 609 44 0 0
VODI 8 107 67 750 1128 93 3 0
ODI 0 11 26 232 1574 489 22 0
CDI 0 1 2 123 1193 2500 159 12
VCDI 0 0 1 106 583 5522 24245 41155

Date: 2023-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96790 12802 408 453 109 0 0 0
OW 270 667 334 867 436 58 0 0
VODI 71 130 74 1008 870 304 2 0
ODI 2 17 9 372 1080 466 19 0
CDI 0 3 4 187 1262 2144 247 6
VCDI 0 1 0 97 514 4211 24652 43797
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96823 12817 433 502 101 0 0 0
OW 244 644 308 841 444 79 0 0
VODI 63 140 72 958 848 262 0 0
ODI 3 15 14 397 1115 422 36 1
CDI 0 4 2 181 1244 2151 314 5
VCDI 0 0 0 105 519 4269 24570 43797

Date: 2023-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95465 13317 371 499 132 0 0 0
OW 185 773 419 615 138 51 0 0
VODI 27 56 69 1605 501 137 0 0
ODI 1 4 7 337 1738 258 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 69 902 2497 172 15
VCDI 0 9 0 24 331 3384 19767 50863
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95398 12935 391 598 106 0 0 0
OW 223 927 298 792 274 141 0 0
VODI 47 251 139 1033 573 355 9 0
ODI 8 31 28 459 882 523 60 1
CDI 2 15 9 213 1316 1889 387 19
VCDI 0 5 1 54 591 3419 19483 50858

Date: 2023-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92854 15219 439 670 183 0 0 0
OW 42 1120 308 564 194 36 0 0
VODI 10 356 332 960 557 138 3 0
ODI 1 48 57 718 825 159 8 0
CDI 0 11 17 316 1546 1899 175 0
VCDI 0 1 10 135 992 6103 19816 47921
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92778 14707 450 704 191 0 0 0
OW 105 1251 310 576 294 130 2 0
VODI 16 615 212 897 578 157 7 0
ODI 5 133 127 604 642 439 26 0
CDI 2 37 40 399 1593 1776 181 2
VCDI 1 12 24 183 999 5833 19786 47919

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93012 14773 351 480 199 0 0 0
OW 33 1378 289 597 208 37 0 0
VODI 13 716 280 775 416 171 12 0
ODI 1 221 188 568 412 259 2 0
CDI 0 60 63 823 1406 1506 81 0
VCDI 0 12 36 255 1023 6487 20577 47023
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92988 13966 331 568 229 0 0 0
OW 48 1601 243 468 309 127 13 0
VODI 15 937 266 794 390 308 3 0
ODI 6 441 156 563 489 395 8 0
CDI 2 156 144 734 1214 1577 91 9
VCDI 0 59 67 371 1033 6053 20557 47014


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