Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2023-10-05

Model: ARC-MFC PHYS (TOPAZ)

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-10

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 1478 138 138 6 0 0 0
OW 0 173 183 441 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 26 579 259 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 135 642 41 21 2
CDI 0 0 0 101 659 887 231 80
VCDI 0 0 0 4 95 1706 11658 17180
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2 1343 136 241 32 0 0 0
OW 0 251 143 573 371 3 0 0
VODI 0 43 34 257 658 349 21 0
ODI 0 15 18 92 155 415 100 0
CDI 0 1 25 196 231 244 485 30
VCDI 0 0 0 39 235 1628 11304 17232

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1073 480 32 17 1 0 0 0
OW 0 40 17 51 10 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 4 94 38 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 74 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 7 22 2 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 17 290 819
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1073 459 31 27 1 1 0 0
OW 0 51 10 70 32 2 0 0
VODI 0 10 5 52 40 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 34 42 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 2 15 21 5 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 15 287 819

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2552 2552 104 145 9 0 0 0
OW 0 28 44 215 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 194 188 0 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 330 34 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 176 823 118 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 151 1878 318
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2552 2527 83 167 66 0 0 0
OW 0 54 66 300 148 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 90 291 153 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 17 157 227 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 82 471 409 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 138 1596 318

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3887 1284 35 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 123 68 166 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 6 63 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 4 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3884 1161 45 10 0 0 0 0
OW 3 241 58 182 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 6 54 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4665 1690 3 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 259 63 43 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 90 2 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 63 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 110 24 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 49 126 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4614 1432 11 20 0 0 0 0
OW 51 403 30 30 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 25 92 77 8 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 12 68 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 63 40 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 20 109 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 926 1825 48 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 46 75 128 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 282 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 154 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 149 311 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 645 625 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 926 1727 31 35 0 0 0 0
OW 0 101 50 64 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 34 153 24 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 8 128 51 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 68 126 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 137 930 625 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3957 1995 23 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 64 51 66 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 130 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 10 12 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3957 1853 18 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 176 27 31 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 30 24 106 3 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 5 47 1 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 11 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10177 1097 24 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 10177 1097 24 24 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6467 2102 30 109 71 0 0 0
OW 0 294 91 73 38 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 19 197 60 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 143 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 255 225 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 422 1004 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6467 1976 30 114 58 0 0 0
OW 0 307 38 72 76 3 0 0
VODI 0 90 31 122 65 27 0 0
ODI 0 23 31 55 105 27 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 86 219 111 1 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 493 1015 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12317 651 12 6 0 0 0 0
OW 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12318 651 12 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4294 1183 16 16 12 0 0 0
OW 0 7 10 13 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 40 9 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 25 42 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 12 21 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 26 63 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4294 1175 16 20 9 0 0 0
OW 0 13 9 9 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 4 23 4 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 28 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 28 17 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 24 63 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8538 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15746 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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