Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2023-09-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. multi-product sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 134044 12940 55 51 0 0 0 0
OW 1020 4654 654 412 7 0 0 0
VODI 42 571 660 5016 1013 14 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 892 9137 1849 1 0
CDI 0 8 0 10 3409 11781 1423 0
VCDI 0 2 1 9 10 1416 3630 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 135979 11254 50 10 0 0 0 0
OW 1016 4728 519 428 1 0 0 0
VODI 1 741 739 5028 861 16 0 0
ODI 0 14 13 1386 9140 1370 13 0
CDI 0 6 1 17 4321 11529 1210 0
VCDI 0 3 0 8 6 1875 2460 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 137498 12916 80 33 0 0 0 0
OW 246 3509 949 690 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 89 225 4414 670 1 0 0
ODI 0 8 4 838 9925 1003 4 0
CDI 0 8 2 50 2296 13783 1928 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 1721 1844 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139446 11011 58 32 1 0 0 0
OW 303 3655 781 493 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 330 395 3957 879 15 0 0
ODI 0 19 24 1306 7767 2904 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 89 3355 13002 1190 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 91 2273 1336 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138928 9838 86 55 5 0 0 0
OW 821 3974 503 492 49 4 0 0
VODI 0 1114 586 3771 1272 8 0 0
ODI 0 85 80 1330 7011 2871 32 0
CDI 0 4 4 222 3751 13165 1405 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 28 2146 1093 0

Date: 2023-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139266 11033 49 13 0 0 0 0
OW 314 3912 566 543 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 556 507 4037 747 2 0 0
ODI 0 17 41 1884 8073 1537 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 160 2711 12001 1449 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 5 3984 1326 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138768 9961 66 32 1 0 0 0
OW 812 4116 442 633 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 1345 559 3998 932 1 0 0
ODI 0 93 90 1743 7389 2024 9 0
CDI 0 3 6 228 3191 11892 1549 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 20 3607 1217 0

Date: 2023-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139736 12435 57 7 1 0 0 0
OW 67 3181 1111 477 3 0 0 0
VODI 2 56 96 5226 545 4 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 452 10964 409 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 942 13177 245 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 4 2755 2767 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139104 9774 59 11 2 0 0 0
OW 701 4277 481 623 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 1441 591 3547 1177 145 0 0
ODI 0 179 126 1757 7413 1760 100 0
CDI 0 8 8 230 3798 9334 1117 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 28 5106 1795 0

Date: 2023-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139280 12908 117 158 7 0 0 0
OW 9 3103 792 779 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 302 4251 1143 100 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 499 9597 1820 16 0
CDI 0 0 1 8 1072 9796 2269 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 8 4069 2457 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 138791 9944 107 158 5 0 0 0
OW 498 4368 436 710 81 51 0 0
VODI 0 1659 540 3353 1183 113 2 0
ODI 0 169 123 1327 7205 2296 285 0
CDI 0 9 10 147 3367 7829 3010 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 17 5496 1445 0

Date: 2023-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140340 11920 122 100 8 0 0 0
OW 42 3263 671 677 79 5 0 0
VODI 1 267 382 3899 1092 121 1 0
ODI 0 0 6 631 8709 2513 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 87 1491 8930 2006 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 3399 3940 14
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 139871 9002 177 123 2 0 0 0
OW 512 4239 368 791 100 79 0 0
VODI 0 2030 470 2855 1258 67 0 0
ODI 0 154 142 1301 6055 2973 191 0
CDI 0 25 24 324 3963 6615 3294 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 5234 2479 12


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