Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-11-20
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-11-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79809 |
28590 |
2685 |
977 |
290 |
157 |
26 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1917 |
1662 |
681 |
382 |
527 |
110 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1323 |
1032 |
990 |
650 |
953 |
170 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
195 |
260 |
296 |
491 |
638 |
446 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
52 |
120 |
270 |
730 |
2637 |
35 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
23 |
124 |
124 |
648 |
13685 |
15139 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-18:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
80536 |
29484 |
3898 |
725 |
143 |
37 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
905 |
2083 |
904 |
191 |
115 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
118 |
907 |
965 |
397 |
477 |
62 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
110 |
235 |
594 |
614 |
579 |
145 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
27 |
81 |
236 |
532 |
1493 |
1548 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
16 |
53 |
282 |
1998 |
15384 |
12966 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79221 |
28928 |
2334 |
817 |
457 |
76 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1790 |
2002 |
724 |
238 |
214 |
11 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
339 |
1193 |
980 |
602 |
399 |
79 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
111 |
289 |
478 |
587 |
783 |
249 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
44 |
116 |
216 |
533 |
2010 |
1360 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
6 |
103 |
155 |
366 |
2267 |
18190 |
10577 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
79221 |
28999 |
2371 |
844 |
469 |
73 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1709 |
1874 |
666 |
233 |
193 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
336 |
1246 |
988 |
594 |
377 |
70 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
125 |
318 |
491 |
571 |
807 |
277 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
42 |
119 |
224 |
547 |
2051 |
1406 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
7 |
109 |
157 |
369 |
2248 |
18123 |
10577 |
|
Date: 2025-11-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78269 |
27008 |
2574 |
588 |
125 |
98 |
9 |
0 |
| OW |
72 |
1121 |
2749 |
935 |
184 |
100 |
91 |
40 |
| VODI |
0 |
109 |
1153 |
1544 |
963 |
483 |
211 |
49 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
178 |
380 |
600 |
659 |
336 |
58 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
29 |
300 |
548 |
1066 |
2310 |
43 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
123 |
112 |
508 |
14434 |
18685 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78167 |
26590 |
2562 |
759 |
249 |
160 |
66 |
0 |
| OW |
145 |
1015 |
1403 |
407 |
179 |
176 |
121 |
19 |
| VODI |
29 |
611 |
1854 |
1347 |
622 |
464 |
211 |
93 |
| ODI |
0 |
22 |
679 |
854 |
792 |
648 |
452 |
35 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
180 |
324 |
527 |
906 |
2274 |
55 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
179 |
163 |
560 |
14267 |
18673 |
|
Date: 2025-11-26:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75333 |
28651 |
2542 |
347 |
62 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1373 |
1508 |
1188 |
351 |
111 |
16 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
161 |
1919 |
1575 |
1008 |
519 |
104 |
2 |
| ODI |
0 |
13 |
397 |
900 |
849 |
915 |
228 |
3 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
190 |
356 |
510 |
1478 |
1968 |
3 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
31 |
118 |
189 |
764 |
17596 |
15559 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75333 |
28389 |
2674 |
616 |
150 |
29 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1112 |
1086 |
921 |
301 |
166 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
578 |
1384 |
984 |
628 |
429 |
150 |
1 |
| ODI |
0 |
81 |
984 |
1219 |
1023 |
932 |
278 |
3 |
| CDI |
0 |
39 |
320 |
556 |
556 |
1444 |
2026 |
21 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
188 |
311 |
793 |
17446 |
15542 |
|
Date: 2025-11-28:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
74763 |
28146 |
2998 |
242 |
47 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1135 |
2046 |
1050 |
208 |
168 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
72 |
1693 |
1752 |
830 |
675 |
210 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
301 |
1053 |
872 |
768 |
538 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
187 |
578 |
552 |
1021 |
2157 |
10 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
174 |
444 |
257 |
1114 |
18723 |
14048 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
74763 |
28000 |
3437 |
566 |
176 |
133 |
48 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
737 |
1493 |
916 |
348 |
304 |
129 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
427 |
1204 |
1307 |
588 |
430 |
314 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
137 |
500 |
1091 |
870 |
762 |
581 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
52 |
439 |
618 |
493 |
963 |
1951 |
9 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
326 |
621 |
291 |
1164 |
18606 |
14050 |
|
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