Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-11-13
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-11-07:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89450 |
28983 |
2678 |
900 |
272 |
42 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
67 |
1218 |
613 |
700 |
606 |
117 |
19 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
164 |
286 |
476 |
463 |
165 |
77 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
84 |
223 |
346 |
176 |
253 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
11 |
28 |
232 |
401 |
453 |
1314 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
10 |
569 |
453 |
1972 |
17662 |
7351 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-11:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
85798 |
27980 |
3176 |
1031 |
327 |
98 |
31 |
0 |
| OW |
20 |
1258 |
1147 |
1084 |
563 |
191 |
33 |
0 |
| VODI |
1 |
63 |
325 |
776 |
653 |
440 |
94 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
98 |
283 |
479 |
407 |
127 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
43 |
192 |
453 |
717 |
1469 |
4 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
25 |
200 |
274 |
1194 |
15455 |
12333 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81237 |
27033 |
3096 |
918 |
339 |
192 |
21 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1498 |
1438 |
664 |
455 |
713 |
99 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1507 |
1000 |
868 |
939 |
1086 |
198 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
247 |
271 |
289 |
467 |
544 |
455 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
31 |
94 |
223 |
703 |
2158 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
94 |
86 |
612 |
14966 |
14289 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81237 |
27143 |
3230 |
1003 |
400 |
211 |
24 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1312 |
1233 |
557 |
366 |
600 |
103 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1567 |
1063 |
875 |
939 |
1122 |
205 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
263 |
282 |
300 |
503 |
574 |
458 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
30 |
102 |
207 |
659 |
2177 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
90 |
94 |
684 |
14930 |
14289 |
|
Date: 2025-11-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81783 |
28520 |
4358 |
555 |
94 |
57 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
14 |
986 |
2193 |
954 |
141 |
123 |
8 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
191 |
715 |
897 |
463 |
544 |
23 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
37 |
257 |
501 |
737 |
605 |
200 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
93 |
210 |
629 |
1393 |
1350 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
73 |
370 |
1618 |
15526 |
12615 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
81758 |
27118 |
3548 |
562 |
92 |
52 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
39 |
2108 |
2263 |
674 |
201 |
266 |
14 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
454 |
1115 |
893 |
379 |
884 |
82 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
54 |
359 |
579 |
490 |
411 |
264 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
233 |
380 |
870 |
1020 |
1279 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
107 |
102 |
402 |
1707 |
15465 |
12615 |
|
Date: 2025-11-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78675 |
29892 |
3120 |
790 |
459 |
130 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1441 |
2089 |
781 |
297 |
192 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
131 |
1097 |
819 |
626 |
608 |
27 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
107 |
203 |
305 |
682 |
916 |
133 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
63 |
93 |
130 |
448 |
2073 |
1349 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
7 |
34 |
77 |
181 |
1310 |
16439 |
13113 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78672 |
27212 |
2432 |
841 |
502 |
163 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
3 |
3262 |
1867 |
424 |
227 |
273 |
2 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1009 |
1717 |
864 |
473 |
953 |
41 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
105 |
404 |
433 |
692 |
1059 |
199 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
37 |
147 |
198 |
590 |
1602 |
1618 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
16 |
69 |
142 |
209 |
1179 |
16091 |
13113 |
|
Date: 2025-11-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78540 |
27440 |
2894 |
912 |
200 |
72 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
2396 |
1431 |
941 |
314 |
210 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
657 |
1035 |
1178 |
860 |
566 |
64 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
241 |
586 |
611 |
915 |
222 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
108 |
258 |
463 |
1803 |
1521 |
13 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
206 |
255 |
2198 |
17252 |
12475 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
78540 |
25723 |
2579 |
945 |
193 |
108 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
2694 |
1037 |
602 |
256 |
177 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1940 |
1329 |
1152 |
820 |
782 |
83 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
131 |
541 |
682 |
544 |
1266 |
459 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
6 |
223 |
504 |
612 |
1471 |
1475 |
22 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
196 |
278 |
1960 |
17042 |
12466 |
|
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