Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-11-06
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-10-31:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
94561 |
25981 |
4034 |
944 |
114 |
94 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
51 |
808 |
732 |
138 |
157 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
7 |
276 |
755 |
324 |
371 |
49 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
133 |
379 |
246 |
387 |
276 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
183 |
191 |
198 |
540 |
1209 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
83 |
377 |
1149 |
12622 |
11457 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-04:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
97825 |
22566 |
3751 |
555 |
98 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
135 |
36 |
864 |
726 |
277 |
76 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1 |
181 |
446 |
326 |
249 |
75 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
208 |
337 |
317 |
223 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
34 |
133 |
253 |
674 |
1186 |
40 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
55 |
255 |
668 |
12621 |
13591 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-11-06:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
90782 |
29080 |
2680 |
884 |
121 |
53 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
844 |
871 |
731 |
303 |
73 |
8 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
23 |
323 |
501 |
234 |
178 |
66 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
6 |
78 |
261 |
237 |
206 |
259 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
36 |
267 |
299 |
511 |
1062 |
25 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
314 |
285 |
1325 |
12953 |
12964 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
90782 |
29012 |
2836 |
1021 |
169 |
67 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
910 |
703 |
628 |
285 |
87 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
24 |
320 |
458 |
226 |
154 |
64 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
7 |
86 |
256 |
204 |
207 |
218 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
43 |
273 |
307 |
509 |
1099 |
20 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
322 |
288 |
1322 |
12954 |
12969 |
|
Date: 2025-11-10:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
87023 |
27729 |
3832 |
1380 |
476 |
142 |
164 |
0 |
| OW |
13 |
828 |
862 |
753 |
535 |
210 |
46 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
144 |
567 |
561 |
369 |
157 |
178 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
6 |
163 |
293 |
244 |
222 |
152 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
79 |
160 |
430 |
895 |
748 |
6 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
12 |
22 |
99 |
641 |
12652 |
16051 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
87000 |
27522 |
3525 |
1279 |
473 |
150 |
153 |
0 |
| OW |
36 |
988 |
1016 |
855 |
581 |
231 |
79 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
186 |
670 |
529 |
316 |
157 |
178 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
206 |
301 |
267 |
220 |
151 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
94 |
184 |
412 |
823 |
720 |
4 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
21 |
104 |
686 |
12659 |
16053 |
|
Date: 2025-11-12:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
82619 |
27718 |
2564 |
1072 |
451 |
166 |
24 |
0 |
| OW |
11 |
1808 |
1213 |
902 |
355 |
637 |
128 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1182 |
667 |
1048 |
711 |
816 |
219 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
53 |
43 |
201 |
365 |
508 |
370 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
181 |
476 |
747 |
1954 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
328 |
390 |
1383 |
15182 |
12349 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
82629 |
27533 |
2477 |
1065 |
495 |
446 |
37 |
0 |
| OW |
1 |
1983 |
1014 |
844 |
368 |
988 |
135 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
1201 |
849 |
879 |
469 |
552 |
155 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
42 |
103 |
383 |
408 |
304 |
351 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
47 |
289 |
669 |
772 |
2171 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
272 |
339 |
1195 |
15028 |
12349 |
|
Date: 2025-11-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
...observations not yet available
|
...observations not yet available
|
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