Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-10-30
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-10-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
99499 |
23407 |
3447 |
902 |
356 |
325 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
197 |
592 |
436 |
268 |
663 |
8 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
36 |
423 |
303 |
217 |
1277 |
52 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
56 |
78 |
122 |
964 |
180 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
28 |
31 |
105 |
1408 |
1353 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
23 |
119 |
835 |
11491 |
9632 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-28:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98534 |
22578 |
3729 |
1251 |
276 |
51 |
28 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
146 |
258 |
637 |
384 |
211 |
126 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
50 |
414 |
414 |
372 |
550 |
400 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
90 |
122 |
253 |
585 |
990 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
80 |
122 |
132 |
365 |
1171 |
26 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
18 |
99 |
175 |
356 |
13282 |
10563 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-30:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
95991 |
24572 |
3952 |
1385 |
99 |
59 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
132 |
338 |
738 |
309 |
186 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
53 |
178 |
426 |
450 |
404 |
290 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
12 |
230 |
171 |
239 |
340 |
694 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
90 |
190 |
245 |
597 |
1181 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
26 |
347 |
537 |
1662 |
12895 |
9822 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
95991 |
24605 |
3993 |
1383 |
91 |
91 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
118 |
323 |
688 |
278 |
172 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
43 |
168 |
460 |
438 |
377 |
216 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
245 |
192 |
288 |
314 |
657 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
57 |
186 |
246 |
616 |
1232 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
28 |
348 |
538 |
1678 |
12952 |
9822 |
|
Date: 2025-11-03:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98292 |
22055 |
3871 |
569 |
56 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
128 |
55 |
984 |
755 |
233 |
73 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
207 |
402 |
393 |
365 |
51 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
39 |
167 |
339 |
468 |
190 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
84 |
292 |
741 |
1144 |
26 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
172 |
127 |
808 |
12136 |
13612 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98239 |
21978 |
3677 |
609 |
100 |
38 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
162 |
111 |
1042 |
579 |
169 |
149 |
14 |
0 |
| VODI |
19 |
21 |
320 |
395 |
361 |
361 |
105 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
58 |
240 |
291 |
435 |
234 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
5 |
138 |
340 |
663 |
1533 |
8 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
188 |
179 |
810 |
11638 |
13630 |
|
Date: 2025-11-05:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
93177 |
26995 |
3539 |
690 |
122 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
38 |
210 |
865 |
859 |
235 |
58 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
212 |
445 |
255 |
226 |
71 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
74 |
238 |
239 |
292 |
252 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
78 |
238 |
239 |
482 |
1219 |
48 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
13 |
134 |
140 |
611 |
13312 |
13222 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
93212 |
26446 |
3140 |
569 |
98 |
7 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
3 |
652 |
1042 |
790 |
212 |
64 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
102 |
377 |
638 |
338 |
401 |
86 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
11 |
82 |
234 |
207 |
371 |
336 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
6 |
118 |
232 |
243 |
367 |
1517 |
14 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
22 |
141 |
132 |
461 |
12911 |
13257 |
|
Date: 2025-11-07:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89450 |
28983 |
2678 |
900 |
272 |
42 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
67 |
1218 |
613 |
700 |
606 |
117 |
19 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
164 |
286 |
476 |
463 |
165 |
77 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
84 |
223 |
346 |
176 |
253 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
11 |
28 |
232 |
401 |
453 |
1314 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
10 |
569 |
453 |
1972 |
17662 |
7351 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
89154 |
28853 |
2405 |
853 |
287 |
53 |
22 |
0 |
| OW |
363 |
1222 |
900 |
748 |
470 |
67 |
64 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
311 |
354 |
618 |
660 |
248 |
158 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
33 |
195 |
336 |
245 |
385 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
169 |
375 |
409 |
1702 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
517 |
413 |
1903 |
16994 |
7351 |
|
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