Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-10-09
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-10-03:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106161 |
23353 |
4101 |
725 |
50 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
164 |
613 |
355 |
243 |
109 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
17 |
235 |
231 |
244 |
320 |
80 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
83 |
117 |
115 |
242 |
205 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
30 |
120 |
228 |
715 |
1089 |
3 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
145 |
800 |
10759 |
7149 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-07:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108974 |
21715 |
3714 |
431 |
19 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
451 |
1054 |
298 |
77 |
26 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
287 |
198 |
245 |
93 |
9 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
52 |
140 |
212 |
233 |
68 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
10 |
95 |
246 |
1347 |
1385 |
14 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
65 |
187 |
830 |
8383 |
7982 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-10-09:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105016 |
25631 |
3979 |
694 |
28 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
156 |
970 |
491 |
94 |
8 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
287 |
395 |
166 |
52 |
21 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
53 |
491 |
145 |
96 |
70 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
13 |
568 |
872 |
760 |
1344 |
5 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
423 |
194 |
668 |
7720 |
7420 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105016 |
25709 |
4169 |
738 |
31 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
78 |
819 |
462 |
102 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
240 |
380 |
150 |
56 |
27 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
55 |
448 |
124 |
85 |
70 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
624 |
908 |
772 |
1735 |
13 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
410 |
184 |
661 |
7321 |
7412 |
|
Date: 2025-10-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109988 |
19675 |
3694 |
370 |
13 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
144 |
151 |
827 |
650 |
95 |
34 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
114 |
12 |
232 |
475 |
273 |
133 |
8 |
0 |
| ODI |
11 |
0 |
90 |
384 |
351 |
340 |
32 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
14 |
177 |
355 |
818 |
750 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
347 |
450 |
1087 |
13278 |
3465 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109952 |
19651 |
3728 |
540 |
37 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
80 |
170 |
479 |
443 |
124 |
64 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
144 |
17 |
341 |
332 |
185 |
149 |
46 |
0 |
| ODI |
81 |
0 |
196 |
369 |
240 |
171 |
114 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
113 |
318 |
382 |
499 |
871 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
401 |
569 |
1532 |
13025 |
3465 |
|
Date: 2025-10-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102583 |
24563 |
4267 |
1057 |
225 |
44 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
361 |
616 |
674 |
433 |
239 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
30 |
165 |
269 |
414 |
525 |
17 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
47 |
226 |
200 |
575 |
54 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
133 |
198 |
1275 |
943 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
10 |
668 |
8485 |
9492 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
102583 |
24416 |
4320 |
1228 |
363 |
175 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
373 |
369 |
418 |
308 |
250 |
34 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
154 |
201 |
252 |
278 |
370 |
83 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
11 |
123 |
225 |
243 |
395 |
101 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
71 |
202 |
231 |
798 |
863 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
11 |
87 |
57 |
1338 |
8420 |
9492 |
|
Date: 2025-10-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
101306 |
24253 |
4177 |
844 |
408 |
95 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
315 |
836 |
610 |
386 |
233 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
12 |
245 |
356 |
565 |
680 |
34 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
72 |
184 |
315 |
789 |
159 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
23 |
149 |
184 |
1039 |
1325 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
16 |
56 |
846 |
8675 |
9653 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
101306 |
24039 |
4418 |
1230 |
713 |
243 |
13 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
247 |
328 |
302 |
431 |
431 |
34 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
259 |
306 |
221 |
303 |
681 |
97 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
35 |
157 |
119 |
144 |
517 |
181 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
116 |
136 |
159 |
700 |
1184 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
31 |
151 |
164 |
1110 |
8685 |
9653 |
|
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