Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-09-18
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-09-12:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109376 |
20194 |
5256 |
717 |
57 |
20 |
15 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
293 |
910 |
706 |
480 |
254 |
16 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
74 |
498 |
1316 |
1171 |
86 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
317 |
1949 |
1334 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
45 |
428 |
4856 |
788 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
70 |
3766 |
3801 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-09-16:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
112958 |
15391 |
6446 |
644 |
90 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
16 |
407 |
870 |
400 |
116 |
17 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
366 |
912 |
629 |
51 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
67 |
329 |
1072 |
166 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
82 |
1519 |
3945 |
1469 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
16 |
350 |
5279 |
5178 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-09-18:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110584 |
17222 |
6048 |
903 |
69 |
5 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
33 |
370 |
929 |
287 |
86 |
17 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
35 |
636 |
810 |
322 |
86 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
163 |
457 |
548 |
573 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
167 |
363 |
4484 |
800 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
30 |
60 |
5309 |
7379 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110584 |
17242 |
6017 |
905 |
79 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
13 |
401 |
881 |
272 |
84 |
15 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
35 |
647 |
825 |
319 |
114 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
441 |
529 |
617 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
41 |
166 |
336 |
4060 |
1164 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
37 |
107 |
5665 |
7015 |
|
Date: 2025-09-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110443 |
16467 |
6888 |
868 |
112 |
26 |
7 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
0 |
468 |
606 |
328 |
179 |
146 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
146 |
258 |
427 |
428 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
147 |
183 |
427 |
854 |
14 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
171 |
431 |
2505 |
51 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
555 |
8374 |
7279 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110443 |
16446 |
6579 |
859 |
150 |
35 |
11 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
21 |
647 |
446 |
198 |
176 |
145 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
131 |
274 |
361 |
477 |
448 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
196 |
165 |
381 |
768 |
4 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
24 |
185 |
414 |
2119 |
60 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
16 |
562 |
8823 |
7280 |
|
Date: 2025-09-24:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107959 |
20766 |
5292 |
871 |
126 |
9 |
10 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
68 |
700 |
459 |
315 |
53 |
62 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
37 |
203 |
498 |
490 |
40 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
114 |
268 |
740 |
260 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
77 |
118 |
806 |
2094 |
20 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
17 |
328 |
9706 |
6324 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107959 |
20576 |
5025 |
889 |
168 |
20 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
244 |
559 |
278 |
247 |
303 |
32 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
14 |
417 |
274 |
297 |
358 |
244 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
28 |
195 |
364 |
493 |
317 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
96 |
253 |
945 |
1646 |
10 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
13 |
307 |
9930 |
6334 |
|
Date: 2025-09-26:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108371 |
21058 |
4753 |
756 |
57 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
83 |
821 |
439 |
238 |
157 |
7 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
370 |
314 |
393 |
92 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
114 |
330 |
522 |
512 |
2 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
166 |
1079 |
2344 |
9 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
26 |
186 |
9795 |
5648 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108371 |
20769 |
4640 |
781 |
165 |
52 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
337 |
506 |
283 |
208 |
274 |
80 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
35 |
460 |
296 |
159 |
311 |
257 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
113 |
290 |
239 |
322 |
337 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
55 |
297 |
1004 |
1312 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
14 |
63 |
390 |
10764 |
5659 |
|
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