Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-09-11
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-09-05:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106072 |
23326 |
5137 |
1187 |
120 |
20 |
36 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
21 |
502 |
1866 |
619 |
206 |
82 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
548 |
1007 |
928 |
480 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
107 |
313 |
1654 |
5393 |
511 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
35 |
179 |
2401 |
1146 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
25 |
2673 |
2197 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-09-09:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110440 |
19399 |
5839 |
712 |
64 |
20 |
16 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
68 |
1070 |
913 |
411 |
155 |
42 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
42 |
437 |
1199 |
1057 |
78 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
46 |
238 |
1466 |
2661 |
3 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
32 |
241 |
4292 |
2786 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
36 |
2643 |
2425 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-09-11:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109667 |
19805 |
5384 |
959 |
104 |
16 |
16 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
168 |
746 |
1030 |
563 |
174 |
14 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
25 |
567 |
1577 |
825 |
150 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
67 |
421 |
1446 |
1916 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
44 |
346 |
4973 |
933 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
126 |
3124 |
3640 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
109667 |
19633 |
5542 |
976 |
117 |
23 |
16 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
340 |
582 |
985 |
566 |
178 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
33 |
592 |
1484 |
716 |
150 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
69 |
490 |
1518 |
1805 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
57 |
388 |
5196 |
1260 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
110 |
3016 |
3313 |
|
Date: 2025-09-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
113317 |
15736 |
5609 |
876 |
97 |
10 |
8 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
25 |
395 |
848 |
533 |
107 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
4 |
292 |
933 |
675 |
69 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
51 |
362 |
1045 |
205 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
25 |
183 |
1614 |
4633 |
1489 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
15 |
222 |
4502 |
4934 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
113317 |
15673 |
5399 |
789 |
150 |
22 |
7 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
88 |
593 |
785 |
604 |
221 |
17 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
16 |
365 |
1025 |
1139 |
120 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
126 |
260 |
1301 |
1153 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
74 |
782 |
4052 |
1420 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
10 |
208 |
4088 |
5003 |
|
Date: 2025-09-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
111387 |
16600 |
6538 |
707 |
45 |
5 |
6 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
2 |
525 |
737 |
351 |
92 |
13 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
32 |
459 |
815 |
581 |
49 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
88 |
365 |
1016 |
197 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
97 |
1150 |
4239 |
1304 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
20 |
12 |
252 |
4911 |
6220 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
111387 |
16582 |
6311 |
895 |
204 |
9 |
9 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
20 |
714 |
566 |
552 |
346 |
13 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
64 |
369 |
624 |
1044 |
145 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
168 |
191 |
813 |
1114 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
31 |
104 |
755 |
3973 |
873 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
10 |
129 |
4161 |
6651 |
|
Date: 2025-09-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107257 |
19758 |
5086 |
2036 |
171 |
115 |
6 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
11 |
180 |
828 |
517 |
159 |
38 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
404 |
744 |
621 |
73 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
194 |
481 |
711 |
396 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
58 |
134 |
654 |
4469 |
661 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
12 |
231 |
5648 |
7157 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107257 |
19699 |
4990 |
2089 |
643 |
193 |
9 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
70 |
261 |
726 |
508 |
535 |
62 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
17 |
433 |
533 |
629 |
368 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
227 |
249 |
414 |
1077 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
71 |
121 |
550 |
4025 |
177 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
6 |
5 |
170 |
5089 |
7641 |
|
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