Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2025-09-04

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106924 23332 4345 685 147 16 37 0
OW 0 480 691 1046 341 51 78 0
VODI 0 30 163 1159 645 384 335 0
ODI 0 0 1 171 487 1748 5747 4
CDI 0 0 0 48 33 251 4806 3716
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 656 287
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109583 19960 5213 522 195 40 30 0
OW 0 295 1287 1117 639 210 132 0
VODI 0 0 46 397 1114 1001 310 0
ODI 0 0 0 59 356 1967 5147 673
CDI 0 0 0 17 83 71 3258 1562
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1966 1594
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107082 22542 4609 1230 142 26 35 0
OW 0 87 772 1299 914 252 118 0
VODI 0 0 18 378 1024 1073 480 0
ODI 0 0 0 70 253 1408 5947 714
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 169 2454 1153
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 7 2378 2154
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107082 22511 4521 1207 128 28 33 0
OW 0 118 855 1353 975 266 103 0
VODI 0 0 23 343 991 986 490 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 230 1461 5736 818
CDI 0 0 0 7 58 189 2746 1203
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 5 2304 2000

Date: 2025-09-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115432 14251 5894 383 101 87 20 0
OW 0 57 1600 878 461 234 29 0
VODI 0 0 255 503 884 828 260 2
ODI 0 0 1 50 300 814 4717 683
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 78 2182 2921
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 6 1512 3394
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115432 14279 5905 340 90 41 17 0
OW 0 29 1530 910 449 217 23 0
VODI 0 0 315 501 891 935 299 3
ODI 0 0 0 58 317 771 4198 636
CDI 0 0 0 5 25 73 2612 2849
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 10 1571 3512

Date: 2025-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109827 19515 6029 725 119 27 13 0
OW 0 305 818 937 374 172 30 0
VODI 0 0 86 599 1155 881 133 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 379 1400 2570 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 60 231 4404 2392
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 49 2831 2720
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109827 19336 5396 505 78 40 19 0
OW 0 431 1204 955 367 208 19 0
VODI 0 53 333 749 1074 840 211 0
ODI 0 0 0 99 537 1408 3217 81
CDI 0 0 0 5 38 171 3778 2026
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 93 2737 3005

Date: 2025-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available


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