Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-08-28
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-08-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
105051 |
24218 |
5008 |
694 |
149 |
46 |
29 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
232 |
1057 |
714 |
411 |
149 |
63 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
108 |
496 |
937 |
839 |
366 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
35 |
348 |
1912 |
5567 |
165 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
25 |
77 |
3171 |
3444 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
1895 |
1601 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-26:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107490 |
21971 |
5560 |
567 |
200 |
33 |
31 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
48 |
949 |
827 |
470 |
133 |
44 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
164 |
385 |
735 |
688 |
234 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
110 |
62 |
137 |
1303 |
5999 |
312 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
22 |
29 |
106 |
3277 |
4261 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
1366 |
1330 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-08-28:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107257 |
22957 |
4528 |
764 |
135 |
23 |
41 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
323 |
693 |
1022 |
366 |
92 |
62 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
2 |
118 |
792 |
647 |
535 |
414 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
78 |
260 |
1520 |
6001 |
206 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
57 |
36 |
290 |
4475 |
3580 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
944 |
619 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
107257 |
22839 |
4525 |
789 |
195 |
39 |
45 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
443 |
668 |
937 |
329 |
99 |
54 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
141 |
848 |
639 |
525 |
409 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
86 |
241 |
1347 |
4985 |
261 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
53 |
40 |
450 |
5374 |
3711 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
1070 |
433 |
|
Date: 2025-09-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110179 |
19362 |
5308 |
406 |
189 |
42 |
29 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
351 |
1179 |
833 |
873 |
355 |
125 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
43 |
250 |
1189 |
999 |
345 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
58 |
329 |
1831 |
5221 |
723 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
87 |
39 |
3650 |
1736 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1725 |
1384 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110179 |
18922 |
5062 |
345 |
184 |
39 |
29 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
766 |
826 |
536 |
590 |
178 |
105 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
25 |
592 |
532 |
1242 |
651 |
289 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
50 |
131 |
551 |
1790 |
4408 |
946 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
95 |
605 |
4848 |
2716 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
3 |
1416 |
181 |
|
Date: 2025-09-03:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110127 |
19997 |
4572 |
674 |
171 |
29 |
41 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
123 |
1065 |
1412 |
678 |
158 |
119 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
397 |
1302 |
857 |
320 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
88 |
334 |
2413 |
4733 |
840 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
79 |
84 |
2861 |
1099 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
7 |
4 |
2286 |
1906 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
110127 |
19487 |
4115 |
533 |
151 |
52 |
47 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
614 |
1009 |
858 |
459 |
206 |
105 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
19 |
520 |
930 |
1069 |
593 |
281 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
44 |
252 |
754 |
1915 |
4166 |
768 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
109 |
769 |
3997 |
2263 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
29 |
10 |
1764 |
814 |
|
Date: 2025-09-05:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106072 |
23326 |
5137 |
1187 |
120 |
20 |
36 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
21 |
502 |
1866 |
619 |
206 |
82 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
548 |
1007 |
928 |
480 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
107 |
313 |
1654 |
5393 |
511 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
35 |
179 |
2401 |
1146 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
25 |
2673 |
2197 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106072 |
22785 |
4378 |
844 |
114 |
54 |
30 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
555 |
971 |
1301 |
399 |
244 |
93 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
7 |
286 |
1200 |
955 |
557 |
421 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
378 |
582 |
1676 |
4270 |
287 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
36 |
456 |
4064 |
2418 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
25 |
2187 |
1149 |
|
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