Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-06-19
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-06-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75575 |
19462 |
5937 |
1091 |
218 |
68 |
146 |
2 |
| OW |
0 |
464 |
3631 |
2501 |
665 |
314 |
432 |
22 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
712 |
1959 |
2509 |
2196 |
1106 |
72 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
44 |
306 |
878 |
2788 |
3612 |
139 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
112 |
155 |
1005 |
10990 |
371 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
9 |
55 |
52 |
5032 |
14207 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-06-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
75071 |
20350 |
8342 |
972 |
140 |
61 |
276 |
3 |
| OW |
0 |
111 |
2994 |
2973 |
706 |
407 |
438 |
27 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
401 |
2137 |
2100 |
2067 |
1686 |
89 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
49 |
234 |
423 |
1076 |
5307 |
97 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
121 |
133 |
176 |
7050 |
394 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
5 |
5 |
4 |
7834 |
14566 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-06-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76387 |
19128 |
8613 |
803 |
102 |
53 |
322 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
421 |
4028 |
2246 |
542 |
339 |
538 |
28 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
921 |
2269 |
1503 |
1817 |
2073 |
98 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
73 |
373 |
433 |
803 |
4786 |
144 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
135 |
103 |
220 |
342 |
7016 |
514 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
95 |
37 |
5 |
8 |
7507 |
14018 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76387 |
19203 |
9120 |
1077 |
122 |
78 |
323 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
345 |
3536 |
2052 |
495 |
332 |
600 |
23 |
| VODI |
0 |
1 |
893 |
2119 |
1512 |
1804 |
2081 |
96 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
102 |
405 |
433 |
742 |
4693 |
147 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
148 |
135 |
237 |
397 |
6974 |
522 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
66 |
43 |
6 |
9 |
7571 |
14014 |
|
Date: 2025-06-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76421 |
17668 |
12045 |
1319 |
191 |
72 |
366 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
171 |
3218 |
3166 |
733 |
325 |
505 |
29 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
358 |
1892 |
1867 |
1945 |
1644 |
103 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
77 |
231 |
421 |
1469 |
4039 |
73 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
228 |
210 |
182 |
337 |
5759 |
73 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
27 |
49 |
91 |
9036 |
12503 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76421 |
17565 |
10921 |
1119 |
173 |
73 |
331 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
264 |
3772 |
2678 |
614 |
309 |
530 |
42 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
865 |
2151 |
1553 |
1635 |
1861 |
83 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
143 |
535 |
659 |
1302 |
3286 |
78 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
225 |
271 |
355 |
764 |
6657 |
504 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
91 |
89 |
156 |
8684 |
12075 |
|
Date: 2025-06-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76478 |
17670 |
13057 |
1183 |
263 |
136 |
427 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
95 |
3547 |
2684 |
664 |
258 |
531 |
25 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
554 |
1939 |
1690 |
1392 |
1696 |
121 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
99 |
327 |
515 |
905 |
3524 |
61 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
146 |
294 |
326 |
474 |
6535 |
574 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
34 |
137 |
8421 |
12051 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
76478 |
17527 |
11278 |
1185 |
289 |
150 |
426 |
3 |
| OW |
0 |
230 |
4432 |
2168 |
646 |
281 |
543 |
32 |
| VODI |
0 |
8 |
1363 |
1879 |
1343 |
1058 |
1862 |
101 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
230 |
675 |
648 |
962 |
3175 |
71 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
100 |
468 |
460 |
665 |
7820 |
2339 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
62 |
106 |
186 |
7308 |
10287 |
|
Date: 2025-06-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
77556 |
19139 |
12074 |
1144 |
181 |
56 |
374 |
11 |
| OW |
0 |
365 |
3442 |
2804 |
512 |
131 |
451 |
35 |
| VODI |
0 |
8 |
690 |
2294 |
1378 |
803 |
1495 |
93 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
211 |
463 |
625 |
825 |
3077 |
67 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
342 |
362 |
431 |
6430 |
808 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
26 |
18 |
115 |
8341 |
11528 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
77556 |
18273 |
10018 |
1022 |
212 |
80 |
462 |
8 |
| OW |
0 |
1081 |
4359 |
2158 |
494 |
173 |
598 |
32 |
| VODI |
0 |
142 |
1660 |
2286 |
894 |
538 |
1577 |
108 |
| ODI |
0 |
16 |
434 |
988 |
761 |
734 |
2848 |
131 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
85 |
568 |
612 |
637 |
8313 |
4395 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
51 |
103 |
199 |
6370 |
7868 |
|
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