Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-05-15
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-05-09:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
56497 |
24056 |
3224 |
283 |
131 |
44 |
15 |
0 |
| OW |
79 |
527 |
2824 |
932 |
489 |
250 |
197 |
0 |
| VODI |
12 |
36 |
1264 |
1716 |
989 |
719 |
897 |
3 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
425 |
930 |
1033 |
1188 |
3753 |
72 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
198 |
771 |
679 |
1158 |
16398 |
507 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
80 |
272 |
303 |
350 |
19393 |
16146 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-05-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57687 |
25595 |
2041 |
218 |
151 |
49 |
37 |
0 |
| OW |
98 |
815 |
2948 |
992 |
530 |
238 |
200 |
0 |
| VODI |
3 |
23 |
1127 |
1825 |
2196 |
2037 |
734 |
4 |
| ODI |
1 |
14 |
156 |
563 |
980 |
3874 |
3650 |
50 |
| CDI |
2 |
3 |
156 |
505 |
537 |
1862 |
16413 |
161 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
31 |
41 |
178 |
15198 |
14915 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-05-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58966 |
23755 |
2297 |
536 |
141 |
76 |
57 |
0 |
| OW |
79 |
602 |
2692 |
1665 |
632 |
415 |
136 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
47 |
1104 |
2430 |
2511 |
2292 |
659 |
3 |
| ODI |
2 |
34 |
164 |
701 |
1111 |
3734 |
3395 |
43 |
| CDI |
1 |
8 |
59 |
607 |
431 |
2776 |
17888 |
729 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
16 |
49 |
10657 |
15330 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58959 |
23515 |
2508 |
653 |
178 |
91 |
64 |
0 |
| OW |
86 |
806 |
2440 |
1590 |
618 |
385 |
146 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
84 |
1158 |
2410 |
2546 |
2340 |
762 |
9 |
| ODI |
2 |
34 |
159 |
699 |
1059 |
3760 |
3272 |
54 |
| CDI |
1 |
7 |
51 |
584 |
418 |
2709 |
18404 |
765 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
15 |
23 |
57 |
10144 |
15277 |
|
Date: 2025-05-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
56415 |
23432 |
4927 |
998 |
207 |
45 |
33 |
0 |
| OW |
15 |
407 |
2590 |
2657 |
1280 |
193 |
216 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
25 |
992 |
2611 |
4271 |
2340 |
828 |
5 |
| ODI |
3 |
5 |
223 |
709 |
1477 |
3308 |
6387 |
51 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
87 |
267 |
531 |
790 |
18032 |
177 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
11 |
6742 |
15548 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
56396 |
22923 |
4108 |
732 |
182 |
38 |
35 |
0 |
| OW |
34 |
798 |
2640 |
2154 |
1034 |
262 |
196 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
100 |
1419 |
2665 |
3733 |
1994 |
1041 |
16 |
| ODI |
3 |
39 |
380 |
819 |
1610 |
2996 |
3898 |
64 |
| CDI |
0 |
9 |
272 |
862 |
1196 |
1382 |
20313 |
1216 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
11 |
17 |
15 |
6755 |
14485 |
|
Date: 2025-05-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57973 |
21701 |
5096 |
899 |
246 |
68 |
41 |
0 |
| OW |
12 |
485 |
2297 |
2775 |
1661 |
428 |
215 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
35 |
519 |
2982 |
3590 |
2571 |
1121 |
8 |
| ODI |
3 |
0 |
83 |
757 |
1263 |
2801 |
6269 |
57 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
38 |
473 |
547 |
1095 |
17507 |
180 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
33 |
23 |
23 |
7244 |
15723 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57953 |
21139 |
4553 |
645 |
217 |
69 |
33 |
0 |
| OW |
32 |
860 |
2140 |
2345 |
1611 |
468 |
170 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
197 |
1051 |
2745 |
2981 |
2226 |
1211 |
20 |
| ODI |
3 |
25 |
182 |
1163 |
1324 |
2713 |
4635 |
79 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
107 |
915 |
1129 |
1429 |
19704 |
1652 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
106 |
68 |
81 |
6644 |
14217 |
|
Date: 2025-05-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58778 |
20748 |
5388 |
705 |
167 |
32 |
28 |
0 |
| OW |
9 |
354 |
2460 |
3796 |
1435 |
438 |
175 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
34 |
479 |
3025 |
2862 |
2860 |
1067 |
7 |
| ODI |
3 |
0 |
55 |
979 |
1099 |
4549 |
4972 |
55 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
17 |
249 |
327 |
1804 |
17774 |
445 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
95 |
38 |
114 |
5560 |
15860 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58767 |
20222 |
4719 |
891 |
162 |
52 |
76 |
0 |
| OW |
20 |
775 |
2404 |
3011 |
1373 |
680 |
258 |
1 |
| VODI |
2 |
129 |
1060 |
2654 |
2404 |
2428 |
1191 |
30 |
| ODI |
3 |
8 |
156 |
1306 |
1219 |
3615 |
3959 |
78 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
60 |
957 |
725 |
2779 |
17919 |
2267 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
30 |
45 |
243 |
6173 |
13991 |
|
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