Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-05-08
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-05-02:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
55411 |
24379 |
1866 |
597 |
120 |
12 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
73 |
722 |
1428 |
906 |
654 |
181 |
94 |
1 |
| VODI |
33 |
132 |
898 |
1027 |
942 |
707 |
627 |
12 |
| ODI |
14 |
18 |
203 |
476 |
625 |
1204 |
2170 |
35 |
| CDI |
7 |
12 |
25 |
348 |
451 |
925 |
14683 |
297 |
| VCDI |
0 |
6 |
1 |
97 |
200 |
474 |
25846 |
19902 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-05-06:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
55005 |
23036 |
4240 |
639 |
148 |
10 |
9 |
0 |
| OW |
90 |
331 |
2093 |
1378 |
857 |
252 |
106 |
0 |
| VODI |
15 |
67 |
970 |
1088 |
1399 |
987 |
715 |
3 |
| ODI |
2 |
2 |
150 |
512 |
880 |
1781 |
3229 |
64 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
48 |
348 |
507 |
1166 |
16475 |
700 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
120 |
129 |
296 |
21487 |
17507 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-05-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
55114 |
25110 |
2939 |
427 |
141 |
40 |
42 |
0 |
| OW |
75 |
479 |
2384 |
1328 |
555 |
217 |
337 |
0 |
| VODI |
11 |
49 |
1346 |
1395 |
1081 |
812 |
896 |
14 |
| ODI |
1 |
2 |
391 |
914 |
1132 |
1445 |
3398 |
72 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
148 |
704 |
648 |
830 |
16138 |
728 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
30 |
268 |
247 |
216 |
20536 |
16202 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
55100 |
24967 |
3105 |
459 |
172 |
43 |
47 |
0 |
| OW |
87 |
605 |
2217 |
1357 |
538 |
218 |
343 |
0 |
| VODI |
10 |
66 |
1334 |
1354 |
1057 |
785 |
906 |
20 |
| ODI |
4 |
2 |
416 |
900 |
1148 |
1468 |
3477 |
76 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
143 |
684 |
648 |
858 |
16506 |
916 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
23 |
282 |
241 |
188 |
20068 |
16004 |
|
Date: 2025-05-12:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58136 |
24682 |
2552 |
167 |
154 |
46 |
28 |
0 |
| OW |
103 |
513 |
3070 |
1002 |
590 |
222 |
152 |
0 |
| VODI |
5 |
28 |
1114 |
1640 |
2484 |
1339 |
709 |
7 |
| ODI |
1 |
17 |
185 |
558 |
1379 |
3618 |
3383 |
49 |
| CDI |
2 |
8 |
225 |
433 |
775 |
2024 |
15639 |
198 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
17 |
29 |
42 |
190 |
16278 |
15051 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58065 |
24179 |
2151 |
153 |
214 |
114 |
28 |
0 |
| OW |
154 |
917 |
2558 |
662 |
471 |
207 |
204 |
0 |
| VODI |
25 |
82 |
1586 |
1322 |
1751 |
1166 |
626 |
18 |
| ODI |
1 |
29 |
462 |
1023 |
1756 |
2700 |
2448 |
65 |
| CDI |
2 |
41 |
321 |
610 |
1154 |
2755 |
16138 |
241 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
85 |
59 |
78 |
497 |
16745 |
14981 |
|
Date: 2025-05-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57531 |
25503 |
2222 |
276 |
183 |
53 |
45 |
0 |
| OW |
94 |
679 |
2893 |
1286 |
574 |
291 |
171 |
0 |
| VODI |
3 |
40 |
1157 |
2076 |
2425 |
2225 |
678 |
4 |
| ODI |
1 |
26 |
167 |
726 |
910 |
3492 |
3623 |
45 |
| CDI |
2 |
29 |
105 |
622 |
515 |
2042 |
17443 |
519 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
23 |
37 |
144 |
13433 |
14531 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57474 |
24731 |
1881 |
263 |
167 |
68 |
48 |
0 |
| OW |
142 |
1321 |
2121 |
988 |
490 |
334 |
149 |
0 |
| VODI |
12 |
135 |
1797 |
1627 |
1664 |
2027 |
591 |
9 |
| ODI |
1 |
34 |
537 |
1292 |
1572 |
2822 |
3202 |
63 |
| CDI |
2 |
56 |
176 |
777 |
684 |
2733 |
17857 |
1210 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
32 |
62 |
67 |
263 |
13546 |
13817 |
|
Date: 2025-05-16:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58496 |
23079 |
2988 |
769 |
136 |
43 |
50 |
0 |
| OW |
69 |
982 |
2134 |
2324 |
502 |
345 |
114 |
0 |
| VODI |
2 |
184 |
885 |
2892 |
2836 |
2037 |
626 |
3 |
| ODI |
2 |
36 |
228 |
849 |
1474 |
3772 |
3102 |
44 |
| CDI |
1 |
5 |
83 |
768 |
587 |
3063 |
18265 |
1304 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
17 |
17 |
66 |
9012 |
14653 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58456 |
22502 |
2758 |
730 |
123 |
37 |
60 |
0 |
| OW |
108 |
1044 |
1697 |
2000 |
642 |
304 |
146 |
0 |
| VODI |
3 |
660 |
951 |
2431 |
2411 |
2010 |
685 |
8 |
| ODI |
2 |
61 |
666 |
1293 |
1513 |
2937 |
2693 |
68 |
| CDI |
1 |
19 |
246 |
1131 |
806 |
3874 |
18169 |
2153 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
34 |
57 |
164 |
9416 |
13775 |
|
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