Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2025-03-27
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2025-03-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
56500 |
22030 |
3506 |
816 |
188 |
22 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
301 |
1401 |
814 |
489 |
202 |
52 |
3 |
| VODI |
0 |
23 |
902 |
1117 |
780 |
700 |
198 |
13 |
| ODI |
0 |
5 |
321 |
563 |
692 |
1116 |
1099 |
26 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
148 |
598 |
689 |
1470 |
8124 |
831 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
61 |
253 |
526 |
1627 |
26877 |
23760 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-03-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
58669 |
22600 |
2902 |
382 |
76 |
22 |
30 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
566 |
2143 |
986 |
305 |
132 |
94 |
1 |
| VODI |
0 |
65 |
983 |
1018 |
684 |
607 |
494 |
20 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
311 |
488 |
502 |
830 |
1546 |
92 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
133 |
368 |
297 |
769 |
6006 |
404 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
222 |
276 |
1478 |
23560 |
28764 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2025-03-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57403 |
23748 |
3139 |
727 |
49 |
19 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
264 |
2261 |
1412 |
258 |
83 |
55 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
69 |
932 |
1604 |
798 |
395 |
288 |
45 |
| ODI |
0 |
24 |
293 |
881 |
749 |
1016 |
902 |
132 |
| CDI |
0 |
11 |
256 |
649 |
671 |
1062 |
4863 |
351 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
312 |
490 |
568 |
696 |
27258 |
24109 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57403 |
23703 |
3236 |
855 |
65 |
25 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
305 |
2121 |
1396 |
267 |
91 |
61 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
66 |
981 |
1522 |
813 |
431 |
321 |
43 |
| ODI |
0 |
29 |
314 |
826 |
719 |
1017 |
928 |
134 |
| CDI |
0 |
13 |
260 |
660 |
631 |
980 |
4641 |
330 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
281 |
504 |
598 |
727 |
27414 |
24130 |
|
Date: 2025-03-31:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57103 |
24476 |
3022 |
776 |
200 |
73 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
788 |
1705 |
979 |
566 |
199 |
46 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
161 |
857 |
829 |
828 |
755 |
491 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
64 |
396 |
365 |
466 |
1102 |
1263 |
52 |
| CDI |
0 |
7 |
366 |
452 |
519 |
1909 |
5415 |
247 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
98 |
136 |
165 |
855 |
24757 |
26355 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57103 |
24022 |
2902 |
707 |
127 |
96 |
3 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
848 |
1472 |
1063 |
494 |
178 |
50 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
375 |
949 |
605 |
834 |
660 |
505 |
4 |
| ODI |
0 |
191 |
534 |
426 |
441 |
1389 |
1171 |
56 |
| CDI |
0 |
60 |
484 |
557 |
619 |
1521 |
6086 |
502 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
103 |
179 |
229 |
1049 |
24158 |
26092 |
|
Date: 2025-04-02:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57527 |
23883 |
3312 |
692 |
167 |
83 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
713 |
1761 |
884 |
470 |
134 |
59 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
223 |
1148 |
853 |
559 |
562 |
425 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
40 |
457 |
498 |
390 |
808 |
1153 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
327 |
550 |
544 |
946 |
6090 |
15 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
82 |
126 |
243 |
495 |
25548 |
27075 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
57527 |
22922 |
2931 |
532 |
213 |
170 |
36 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1135 |
1480 |
813 |
291 |
173 |
166 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
584 |
1214 |
850 |
540 |
431 |
487 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
198 |
682 |
493 |
428 |
875 |
1274 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
20 |
666 |
741 |
581 |
751 |
7142 |
179 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
114 |
174 |
320 |
628 |
24172 |
26910 |
|
Date: 2025-04-04:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
56634 |
24199 |
2744 |
568 |
166 |
105 |
13 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
964 |
1307 |
905 |
634 |
321 |
31 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
341 |
818 |
836 |
838 |
1062 |
230 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
29 |
392 |
564 |
470 |
1357 |
632 |
52 |
| CDI |
0 |
9 |
270 |
684 |
614 |
1757 |
6311 |
248 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
111 |
222 |
224 |
496 |
24199 |
27487 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
56634 |
22502 |
2097 |
756 |
415 |
346 |
36 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1526 |
1263 |
499 |
527 |
423 |
92 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
903 |
939 |
641 |
550 |
843 |
339 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
408 |
523 |
514 |
432 |
1143 |
936 |
27 |
| CDI |
0 |
189 |
651 |
989 |
705 |
1513 |
7010 |
464 |
| VCDI |
0 |
14 |
169 |
380 |
317 |
830 |
23003 |
27296 |
|
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