Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2024-10-17
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2024-10-11:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
106163 |
19052 |
3077 |
649 |
64 |
38 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
115 |
79 |
514 |
392 |
128 |
50 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
229 |
265 |
435 |
231 |
11 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
96 |
137 |
194 |
405 |
91 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
43 |
113 |
264 |
705 |
1142 |
24 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
32 |
118 |
1103 |
12276 |
10226 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2024-10-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
108605 |
18196 |
1782 |
348 |
21 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
486 |
593 |
637 |
391 |
47 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
303 |
120 |
249 |
521 |
228 |
72 |
5 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
27 |
165 |
270 |
207 |
241 |
135 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
157 |
405 |
346 |
459 |
1444 |
38 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
172 |
458 |
796 |
10927 |
9605 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2024-10-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98896 |
25603 |
2646 |
774 |
224 |
30 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
749 |
483 |
572 |
246 |
59 |
15 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
236 |
214 |
431 |
487 |
259 |
39 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
47 |
176 |
249 |
242 |
374 |
281 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
22 |
205 |
369 |
679 |
407 |
1455 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
13 |
145 |
421 |
951 |
13143 |
7324 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98896 |
25705 |
2630 |
736 |
208 |
38 |
8 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
688 |
503 |
636 |
278 |
63 |
15 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
205 |
217 |
369 |
434 |
213 |
37 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
34 |
187 |
262 |
257 |
351 |
256 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
25 |
181 |
366 |
707 |
478 |
1442 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
171 |
415 |
937 |
13177 |
7324 |
|
Date: 2024-10-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
101149 |
23002 |
2657 |
716 |
35 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
694 |
1240 |
818 |
179 |
36 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
51 |
497 |
814 |
520 |
131 |
30 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
7 |
184 |
420 |
463 |
165 |
152 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
74 |
359 |
551 |
516 |
3800 |
45 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
164 |
362 |
1500 |
10673 |
6450 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
101149 |
22823 |
2784 |
787 |
72 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
539 |
787 |
825 |
315 |
73 |
12 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
259 |
437 |
642 |
363 |
94 |
30 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
67 |
244 |
332 |
313 |
103 |
120 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
66 |
311 |
483 |
575 |
508 |
1294 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
89 |
222 |
472 |
1568 |
13199 |
6495 |
|
Date: 2024-10-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98286 |
23667 |
3339 |
980 |
65 |
20 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
280 |
996 |
911 |
308 |
179 |
0 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
32 |
423 |
665 |
453 |
349 |
9 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
335 |
402 |
362 |
450 |
50 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
139 |
387 |
487 |
836 |
2056 |
152 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
354 |
498 |
1271 |
9849 |
9875 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
98286 |
23440 |
3250 |
975 |
84 |
57 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
334 |
717 |
891 |
273 |
184 |
5 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
127 |
572 |
778 |
506 |
310 |
12 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
52 |
338 |
433 |
475 |
400 |
53 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
26 |
324 |
299 |
391 |
1030 |
2056 |
233 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
32 |
323 |
444 |
1124 |
9838 |
9794 |
|
Date: 2024-10-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
97226 |
24663 |
2418 |
616 |
203 |
26 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
390 |
803 |
965 |
446 |
119 |
3 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
66 |
162 |
810 |
500 |
252 |
29 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
37 |
91 |
738 |
367 |
278 |
69 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
13 |
157 |
971 |
311 |
548 |
1238 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
148 |
652 |
295 |
1394 |
11891 |
9571 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
97226 |
24262 |
2444 |
981 |
245 |
31 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
651 |
518 |
754 |
408 |
115 |
1 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
195 |
442 |
1021 |
487 |
257 |
15 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
59 |
253 |
832 |
348 |
219 |
70 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
2 |
122 |
811 |
414 |
615 |
1449 |
103 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
353 |
220 |
1380 |
11695 |
9468 |
|
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