Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-12-07
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-12-01:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
65584 |
22523 |
2717 |
665 |
236 |
72 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1552 |
1702 |
673 |
477 |
445 |
18 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
354 |
1047 |
734 |
808 |
846 |
133 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
71 |
281 |
412 |
661 |
1470 |
627 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
15 |
261 |
250 |
656 |
2654 |
3607 |
72 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
193 |
174 |
367 |
2126 |
26981 |
17004 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-12-05:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
64397 |
23214 |
3203 |
382 |
125 |
83 |
1 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
535 |
1890 |
725 |
247 |
171 |
15 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
61 |
948 |
1000 |
694 |
554 |
348 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
12 |
229 |
338 |
450 |
1314 |
829 |
9 |
| CDI |
0 |
22 |
133 |
166 |
309 |
1443 |
4259 |
170 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
85 |
35 |
136 |
1177 |
24572 |
24185 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-12-07:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
66025 |
22118 |
2540 |
221 |
79 |
105 |
9 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
802 |
1438 |
652 |
134 |
111 |
26 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
170 |
854 |
1099 |
593 |
361 |
129 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
56 |
185 |
668 |
542 |
1078 |
472 |
7 |
| CDI |
0 |
64 |
117 |
452 |
473 |
1577 |
3390 |
28 |
| VCDI |
0 |
86 |
76 |
145 |
225 |
1704 |
34587 |
15070 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
66025 |
22140 |
2582 |
252 |
86 |
130 |
11 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
789 |
1381 |
684 |
154 |
99 |
26 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
162 |
869 |
1069 |
569 |
394 |
140 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
53 |
207 |
637 |
540 |
1071 |
485 |
7 |
| CDI |
0 |
68 |
102 |
461 |
480 |
1565 |
3323 |
38 |
| VCDI |
0 |
84 |
69 |
134 |
217 |
1677 |
34628 |
15060 |
|
Date: 2023-12-11:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
64592 |
22249 |
1816 |
421 |
64 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1400 |
1716 |
996 |
264 |
30 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
453 |
964 |
1446 |
881 |
415 |
53 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
158 |
390 |
774 |
779 |
998 |
454 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
117 |
364 |
625 |
982 |
1689 |
3052 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
78 |
397 |
795 |
5634 |
30721 |
12688 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
64592 |
21779 |
1663 |
481 |
130 |
26 |
5 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1275 |
1459 |
724 |
285 |
49 |
27 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
569 |
1004 |
1103 |
608 |
345 |
90 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
310 |
400 |
921 |
820 |
736 |
420 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
400 |
354 |
678 |
963 |
1827 |
2870 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
46 |
448 |
752 |
959 |
5784 |
30878 |
12688 |
|
Date: 2023-12-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
61999 |
24095 |
1711 |
367 |
61 |
6 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
997 |
2054 |
887 |
383 |
101 |
2 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
459 |
1266 |
1232 |
765 |
542 |
80 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
271 |
458 |
688 |
922 |
1063 |
372 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
132 |
484 |
651 |
841 |
2335 |
4738 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
39 |
281 |
544 |
464 |
1659 |
32644 |
12873 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
61999 |
23524 |
1370 |
383 |
89 |
11 |
4 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1050 |
1684 |
759 |
342 |
104 |
18 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
482 |
1364 |
1037 |
691 |
561 |
102 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
339 |
606 |
732 |
744 |
1124 |
457 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
464 |
667 |
707 |
896 |
1987 |
4216 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
134 |
563 |
751 |
674 |
1919 |
33041 |
12873 |
|
Date: 2023-12-15:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
63507 |
22775 |
1748 |
227 |
28 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1152 |
1915 |
803 |
149 |
75 |
14 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
556 |
1463 |
1753 |
695 |
401 |
129 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
234 |
384 |
927 |
1049 |
851 |
382 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
138 |
473 |
786 |
1070 |
1732 |
4648 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
87 |
163 |
575 |
571 |
1728 |
33545 |
11725 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
63507 |
22115 |
1120 |
258 |
58 |
50 |
12 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
1411 |
1639 |
475 |
101 |
70 |
29 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
619 |
1859 |
1558 |
517 |
260 |
116 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
277 |
636 |
997 |
933 |
809 |
623 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
374 |
498 |
825 |
1041 |
1315 |
3489 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
146 |
394 |
958 |
912 |
2291 |
34451 |
11725 |
|
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