Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2025-11-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81783 5054 127 102 27 0 0 0
OW 1178 319 61 83 117 15 0 0
VODI 3117 73 85 164 115 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 9 93 182 72 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 178 667 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1251 7669 180
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80996 5287 167 175 18 2 0 0
OW 1181 436 82 58 82 26 0 0
VODI 3257 136 101 174 88 39 0 0
ODI 0 35 28 130 154 47 1 0
CDI 0 7 21 101 331 426 14 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 32 3265 5965 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80507 5794 131 159 40 9 0 0
OW 1104 510 70 58 43 13 0 0
VODI 3269 126 109 162 90 61 1 0
ODI 0 10 34 166 157 103 5 0
CDI 0 3 2 43 240 524 35 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 9 3076 6150 44
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80306 5911 100 92 22 0 0 0
OW 1116 446 83 83 57 3 0 0
VODI 3286 157 68 158 127 41 0 0
ODI 0 13 41 130 177 114 0 0
CDI 0 0 2 58 228 594 61 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 17 2356 7015 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80309 5880 104 93 23 0 0 0
OW 1110 450 81 83 55 3 0 0
VODI 3289 170 65 160 118 31 0 0
ODI 0 27 40 117 190 133 2 0
CDI 0 0 4 68 226 591 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 16 2350 7006 0

Date: 2025-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80255 6001 76 56 1 0 0 0
OW 1111 444 76 90 43 0 0 0
VODI 3298 174 75 164 107 11 0 0
ODI 0 32 29 117 131 110 4 0
CDI 0 5 8 64 237 521 164 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 36 1177 7586 657
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80266 5988 78 66 6 0 0 0
OW 1101 444 85 104 35 0 0 0
VODI 3297 166 58 148 108 8 0 0
ODI 0 50 29 94 140 112 4 0
CDI 0 8 14 79 232 509 148 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 34 1190 7602 657

Date: 2025-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79932 6240 63 60 4 0 0 0
OW 1067 584 113 84 38 0 0 0
VODI 3311 94 96 195 107 12 0 0
ODI 0 15 12 116 154 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 50 229 472 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 27 1972 6810 916
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79878 6156 94 97 38 1 0 0
OW 1104 485 63 96 55 10 0 0
VODI 3328 196 68 142 102 21 0 0
ODI 0 72 42 64 126 56 4 0
CDI 0 22 20 85 180 470 91 0
VCDI 0 2 5 21 58 1929 6765 916

Date: 2025-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79215 6886 65 53 1 0 0 0
OW 1040 525 137 120 58 11 0 0
VODI 3322 156 78 171 116 24 0 0
ODI 0 34 35 99 125 17 0 0
CDI 0 25 35 90 251 476 20 0
VCDI 0 0 2 31 60 2081 6933 570
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79162 6780 74 65 8 0 0 0
OW 1064 474 111 113 53 27 0 0
VODI 3351 227 68 137 95 13 0 0
ODI 0 66 49 111 139 35 2 0
CDI 0 62 27 84 223 433 25 0
VCDI 0 17 23 54 93 2101 6926 570

Date: 2025-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78615 7048 102 113 10 0 0 0
OW 1064 525 116 189 89 26 0 0
VODI 3346 182 101 180 143 65 0 0
ODI 0 53 30 131 129 56 0 0
CDI 0 57 27 97 203 484 12 0
VCDI 0 35 18 88 125 2091 7294 18
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78542 6887 139 159 20 3 0 0
OW 1083 469 77 175 138 48 0 0
VODI 3398 240 80 101 142 80 0 0
ODI 2 75 25 149 74 84 1 0
CDI 0 140 35 91 185 388 9 0
VCDI 0 89 38 123 140 2119 7296 18


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