Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2025-11-13

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-11-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82174 5703 90 77 10 0 0 0
OW 1195 186 63 114 82 4 0 0
VODI 3026 41 58 96 108 29 0 0
ODI 0 10 17 77 76 89 1 0
CDI 0 1 7 49 142 404 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 27 1421 6781 627
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82244 5431 134 76 9 0 0 0
OW 1180 239 59 64 40 3 0 0
VODI 3047 102 72 119 43 16 0 0
ODI 0 19 28 109 73 41 0 0
CDI 0 0 10 62 235 300 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 1723 6674 665
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81621 5960 75 101 29 0 0 0
OW 1152 271 103 68 56 2 0 0
VODI 3083 27 53 153 87 6 0 0
ODI 0 10 12 55 123 31 1 0
CDI 0 0 4 32 160 427 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 985 7133 992
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81816 5353 89 79 37 3 0 0
OW 1165 305 45 77 88 23 0 0
VODI 3107 71 95 130 83 33 0 0
ODI 0 2 12 100 147 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 176 505 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 1388 7483 338
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81828 5378 91 91 42 6 0 0
OW 1152 287 48 69 85 21 0 0
VODI 3108 65 86 126 91 31 0 0
ODI 0 1 16 99 145 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 170 516 46 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1380 7481 338

Date: 2025-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81327 5239 134 118 9 0 0 0
OW 1170 345 70 86 110 7 0 0
VODI 3249 90 90 164 133 14 0 0
ODI 0 11 21 114 195 55 0 0
CDI 0 4 9 41 256 590 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 2209 6926 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81335 5273 140 128 16 0 0 0
OW 1161 325 71 82 99 5 0 0
VODI 3250 79 85 158 143 16 0 0
ODI 0 9 20 114 205 52 0 0
CDI 0 3 8 41 240 602 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 2200 6923 0

Date: 2025-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80859 5651 136 125 16 4 0 0
OW 1109 445 122 73 41 4 0 0
VODI 3258 62 86 219 131 62 0 0
ODI 0 6 16 139 155 107 0 0
CDI 0 0 4 33 259 515 10 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 19 3390 5368 434
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80783 5416 142 141 19 0 0 0
OW 1172 512 35 50 61 16 0 0
VODI 3271 213 133 124 66 63 0 0
ODI 0 22 45 185 142 58 2 0
CDI 0 1 9 93 296 469 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 3476 5358 434

Date: 2025-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80204 5990 97 156 49 13 0 0
OW 1111 467 83 80 34 19 0 0
VODI 3278 129 106 150 114 57 0 0
ODI 0 3 28 171 148 117 6 0
CDI 0 0 2 41 193 639 50 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 6 2542 6748 30
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80098 5649 102 166 59 14 0 0
OW 1208 577 39 56 46 23 0 0
VODI 3287 328 96 95 71 83 1 0
ODI 0 35 74 202 110 83 5 0
CDI 0 0 5 80 256 621 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 2563 6739 30

Date: 2025-11-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80461 5871 43 43 7 0 0 0
OW 1105 440 92 93 40 0 0 0
VODI 3296 148 65 182 119 8 0 0
ODI 0 34 44 107 181 87 0 0
CDI 0 1 6 67 327 437 89 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 53 1729 7630 57
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80289 5446 56 50 9 0 0 0
OW 1190 616 66 90 45 0 0 0
VODI 3383 263 59 140 120 44 0 0
ODI 0 135 33 85 182 93 0 0
CDI 0 34 36 127 316 337 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 55 1787 7574 57


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