Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2025-11-06

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10706 3947 211 242 72 4 0 0
OW 0 340 181 350 93 5 0 0
VODI 0 77 103 313 225 39 0 0
ODI 0 4 20 191 327 179 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 323 683 123 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 1564 11927 13529
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10618 3851 204 363 27 0 0 0
OW 0 496 137 306 98 2 0 0
VODI 0 214 99 248 281 36 0 0
ODI 0 58 50 169 304 94 13 0
CDI 0 27 23 78 391 378 52 0
VCDI 0 3 7 44 148 1599 11151 14297
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10115 4014 270 437 76 0 0 0
OW 0 609 200 322 163 1 0 0
VODI 0 67 94 370 349 20 0 0
ODI 0 1 18 178 403 78 7 0
CDI 0 0 2 31 409 430 65 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 107 1801 12275 12949
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9723 3526 284 436 79 0 0 0
OW 0 349 169 522 447 45 0 0
VODI 0 105 87 305 492 144 0 0
ODI 0 15 33 144 352 155 7 0
CDI 0 0 3 84 278 338 130 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 349 1672 9825 15759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9722 3514 310 544 186 7 0 0
OW 1 341 138 357 327 43 0 0
VODI 0 119 87 332 468 138 0 0
ODI 0 21 37 169 309 154 3 0
CDI 0 0 4 90 336 334 125 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 371 1678 9834 15759

Date: 2025-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9539 3287 184 210 65 12 0 0
OW 0 388 220 558 311 171 0 0
VODI 0 142 86 457 378 205 8 0
ODI 0 19 33 202 349 183 26 0
CDI 0 1 9 71 337 439 210 1
VCDI 0 0 0 25 323 1580 10466 15371
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9532 3375 228 380 103 32 0 0
OW 7 299 174 364 276 141 0 0
VODI 0 153 98 372 343 211 2 0
ODI 0 10 30 251 279 199 31 0
CDI 0 0 2 132 418 422 221 1
VCDI 0 0 0 24 344 1585 10456 15371

Date: 2025-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9154 3199 135 136 36 4 0 0
OW 3 604 207 349 83 1 0 0
VODI 0 74 83 555 701 81 0 0
ODI 0 0 10 83 837 380 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 27 259 737 108 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 54 1090 9125 17723
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9140 3192 199 270 113 18 0 0
OW 17 411 101 371 355 120 0 0
VODI 0 223 79 253 434 283 10 0
ODI 0 36 40 142 342 209 62 0
CDI 0 13 12 99 499 415 203 2
VCDI 0 2 4 24 227 1248 8976 17722

Date: 2025-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9389 2736 112 159 36 3 0 0
OW 4 441 193 223 140 38 0 0
VODI 0 128 116 420 378 140 0 0
ODI 0 5 30 143 587 551 12 0
CDI 0 0 2 62 213 877 128 0
VCDI 0 0 1 25 88 1142 9648 17696
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9341 2622 106 179 106 32 0 0
OW 51 337 115 204 233 119 1 0
VODI 1 220 146 355 394 397 19 0
ODI 0 112 49 154 258 293 62 0
CDI 0 14 29 98 315 701 156 0
VCDI 0 5 9 42 136 1209 9550 17696

Date: 2025-11-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9148 2712 179 170 46 0 0 0
OW 0 533 96 239 127 5 0 0
VODI 0 255 106 307 280 150 0 0
ODI 0 26 21 103 220 374 11 0
CDI 0 12 22 31 109 871 191 0
VCDI 0 9 1 41 120 1750 12002 15599
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9110 2420 168 227 123 11 0 0
OW 24 404 51 110 175 153 1 0
VODI 14 467 83 203 191 527 35 0
ODI 0 140 61 201 170 403 143 0
CDI 0 68 33 65 76 633 310 0
VCDI 0 48 29 85 167 1423 11715 15599


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