Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-10-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-10-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112575 14297 342 322 18 2 0 0
OW 1905 1966 613 1022 337 32 0 0
VODI 1991 393 253 1089 1001 230 1 0
ODI 0 54 32 230 774 688 49 0
CDI 0 13 28 91 426 2521 632 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 216 5952 19504 11203
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110997 13827 368 407 70 0 0 0
OW 1855 1722 436 925 476 14 0 0
VODI 2057 292 203 1050 1628 410 15 0
ODI 0 65 45 281 987 781 128 0
CDI 0 17 27 121 541 1995 791 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 82 8841 28436 919
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110080 15325 390 260 16 0 0 0
OW 1756 1523 383 725 152 0 0 0
VODI 2223 144 236 1052 939 19 0 0
ODI 0 13 30 320 1058 455 0 0
CDI 0 0 8 92 974 2899 392 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 96 10419 23182 5649
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-10-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112284 13196 179 142 9 1 0 0
OW 1833 1493 359 671 212 13 0 0
VODI 2117 382 192 728 873 169 0 0
ODI 0 169 51 240 958 590 37 0
CDI 0 87 101 256 750 2183 845 0
VCDI 0 0 2 21 196 12401 23751 3319
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112293 13269 213 179 8 1 0 0
OW 1828 1384 316 647 259 21 0 0
VODI 2113 411 194 678 843 196 0 0
ODI 0 161 50 265 926 698 47 0
CDI 0 102 109 266 769 2420 1093 0
VCDI 0 0 2 23 193 12021 23493 3319

Date: 2025-10-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111026 13056 250 262 37 0 0 0
OW 1761 1667 408 563 223 46 0 0
VODI 2271 364 275 822 814 233 7 0
ODI 0 134 48 312 733 696 106 0
CDI 0 183 56 226 822 2149 962 0
VCDI 0 6 7 20 134 11269 27438 1424
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111051 13157 257 265 88 8 0 0
OW 1739 1540 405 606 206 43 1 0
VODI 2268 386 266 780 760 236 6 0
ODI 0 125 47 295 775 720 105 0
CDI 0 191 56 230 786 2298 996 0
VCDI 0 11 13 29 148 11088 27405 1424

Date: 2025-10-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109474 14177 191 159 22 0 0 0
OW 1711 2082 653 551 57 0 0 0
VODI 2304 151 163 1104 542 6 0 0
ODI 0 47 31 290 1270 230 4 0
CDI 0 0 1 46 827 3809 366 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 41 6562 28024 5914
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109472 13570 288 333 51 0 0 0
OW 1712 1850 298 525 302 42 1 0
VODI 2305 662 273 640 668 235 24 0
ODI 0 165 94 337 691 669 167 0
CDI 0 205 77 264 769 2162 1092 0
VCDI 0 5 9 52 278 7499 27110 5914

Date: 2025-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108009 14471 317 308 19 0 0 0
OW 1724 1798 511 949 196 10 0 0
VODI 2218 280 183 827 850 102 1 0
ODI 0 41 95 338 857 442 27 0
CDI 0 1 29 359 913 2429 804 0
VCDI 0 1 6 31 254 7566 27387 6457
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107939 13552 336 425 80 23 0 0
OW 1671 1970 303 663 298 68 8 0
VODI 2341 702 305 732 726 225 46 0
ODI 0 134 77 400 837 634 112 0
CDI 0 117 28 247 611 1750 1504 0
VCDI 0 117 92 345 537 7849 26549 6457

Date: 2025-10-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106521 14147 381 338 120 13 0 0
OW 1660 1823 449 976 367 54 0 0
VODI 2360 254 254 871 1128 368 0 0
ODI 0 73 44 245 800 760 93 0
CDI 0 42 41 257 715 2324 1169 0
VCDI 0 0 4 13 170 9709 24766 7501
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 106505 13148 446 613 310 105 0 0
OW 1668 1883 324 704 487 157 9 0
VODI 2368 769 218 671 894 462 120 0
ODI 0 193 61 269 664 793 293 0
CDI 0 135 51 154 465 1364 1693 13
VCDI 0 211 73 289 480 10347 23913 7488


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