Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2025-06-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2025-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67305 15917 165 88 9 0 1 0
OW 947 4486 737 817 142 20 1 0
VODI 3477 1370 851 3163 1525 179 36 0
ODI 0 184 175 1176 3046 1534 267 0
CDI 0 149 84 410 2467 8897 5496 18
VCDI 0 3 6 45 1752 10365 26624 16876
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68901 14492 157 78 17 0 1 0
OW 1068 4703 818 893 158 13 1 0
VODI 3318 1705 882 2981 1529 221 44 0
ODI 2 309 205 1362 2785 1462 299 2
CDI 0 179 89 499 2488 8103 5828 3
VCDI 0 0 5 30 3499 13660 26611 11410
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69097 16610 217 132 11 2 1 0
OW 1055 4896 985 878 57 5 0 0
VODI 3297 931 876 3355 1299 69 8 0
ODI 0 75 88 1064 3110 1193 66 0
CDI 0 19 31 262 2643 8806 2605 27
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2080 9995 29608 15356
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2025-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70507 15930 108 65 2 0 0 0
OW 1180 5366 753 646 72 4 0 0
VODI 3280 1692 942 2766 1187 97 13 0
ODI 0 133 169 1091 2904 1384 144 0
CDI 0 49 57 429 2837 7496 3239 0
VCDI 0 0 3 37 1847 13010 32319 9052
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70419 16507 131 68 3 0 0 0
OW 1268 4832 733 670 88 5 1 0
VODI 3280 1632 920 2688 1169 111 13 0
ODI 0 159 183 1101 2817 1175 144 0
CDI 0 39 60 458 2873 7649 3342 0
VCDI 0 1 5 49 1899 13051 32215 9052

Date: 2025-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71086 15792 110 60 5 2 0 0
OW 1260 5307 775 664 65 4 1 0
VODI 3273 2089 881 2497 1140 138 26 0
ODI 0 307 254 1203 3166 1115 139 0
CDI 0 72 86 636 3407 7247 3055 8
VCDI 0 8 4 37 3052 14648 28585 8606
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71006 16193 163 84 6 2 0 0
OW 1334 4962 727 689 83 15 1 0
VODI 3279 1999 841 2326 1156 144 26 0
ODI 0 328 277 1234 2815 1124 162 0
CDI 0 85 98 723 3631 7194 3225 42
VCDI 0 8 4 41 3144 14675 28392 8572

Date: 2025-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73282 16562 164 61 4 0 0 0
OW 1253 4996 919 686 39 3 1 0
VODI 3235 718 842 3006 1312 93 15 0
ODI 0 39 66 976 4150 2085 86 0
CDI 0 35 37 262 2574 13660 1881 0
VCDI 0 0 1 54 2120 12748 23781 9064
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72911 14938 175 80 6 1 0 0
OW 1582 4969 626 738 85 7 3 0
VODI 3277 2042 827 2100 1095 209 42 0
ODI 0 300 284 1230 2601 1566 168 0
CDI 0 91 107 811 3735 9459 3199 138
VCDI 0 10 10 86 2677 17347 22352 8926

Date: 2025-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74405 16455 120 47 6 2 0 0
OW 1292 4912 796 690 64 4 0 0
VODI 3227 935 784 2820 1206 239 18 0
ODI 0 87 107 1133 4045 1526 101 0
CDI 0 38 60 450 2861 13485 3275 0
VCDI 0 0 1 8 4632 15148 23367 2464
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74204 14429 163 104 14 3 0 0
OW 1472 5220 580 736 104 5 0 0
VODI 3248 2233 705 1950 1167 200 40 0
ODI 0 371 258 1343 2762 1278 257 0
CDI 0 170 140 933 3739 11299 7572 114
VCDI 0 4 22 82 5028 17619 18892 2350

Date: 2025-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74763 17082 141 120 19 1 0 0
OW 1223 5242 643 594 69 13 1 0
VODI 3192 1410 854 2417 1143 195 34 0
ODI 0 160 184 1989 3028 1297 125 0
CDI 0 64 74 693 3745 13062 2964 1
VCDI 0 0 1 45 1587 19679 19800 3156
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74536 14553 153 131 17 1 0 0
OW 1419 5865 465 534 112 16 3 0
VODI 3223 2749 714 1672 818 181 77 0
ODI 0 557 357 2070 2399 960 308 0
CDI 0 217 194 1307 4022 11627 9354 2
VCDI 0 17 14 144 2223 21462 13182 3155


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